The more obvious a trend becomes, the more careful I get about joining it late

$META has moved far enough that I’m now interested in the other side.

Barberis, Shleifer and Vishny describe a behavioral process where investors can extrapolate a sequence of good news and eventually overreact.

The practical implication is simple: a good company and an attractive short can exist at the same time.

I’m not shorting META because I suddenly dislike the business.

I’m shorting the distance between current expectations and what I think the next marginal buyer is willing to pay.

SHORT — $META
Entry — $777.59
Stop — $794.00
Target — $717.65
Expected move — -7.71%
Portfolio — 6%
Leverage — 1.5x

This is an expectations trade, not a corporate obituary.