Glassnode

We can identify #Bitcoin bull and bear cycles via analysis of one of the more fundamental sets of metrics: On-chain activity.

In this 101 session, we deep dive into navigating market hype cycles, and bear market lows using on-chain activity as a compass.

Watch our Video 101 here.

#Bitcoin Liveliness is a macro metric which tracks coin dormancy vs coin-day destruction.

The current market is seeing a preference for HODLing, rather than spending. This leads to a downtrend in liveliness, typically seen within the context of bear market accumulation phases.

Live Chart

#Bitcoin has found upside relief, trading back above $38k, despite bearish headwinds

In this week's video report, we analyse:
- Growing short interest in futures and options
- Assess demand and accumulation
- Estimate fair value via network utility

Watch our video report for Week #5

#Bitcoin exchange balances have drawn down to multi-year lows, with a total of 42.9k $BTC in outflows since the Nov ATH.

This is very different in character compared to May 2021 where exchanges had 164k $BTC in net inflows

Read more in The Week Onchain

The bearish #Bitcoin trend continued last week, with prices briefly breaking below $33k.

Short bias has started to creep into both futures and options markets, whilst organic demand is slowly but surely picking up.

Read our analysis in The Week Onchain

Tracking #Bitcoin realized profit and loss provides insight into investor sentiment, and spending patterns.

We explore how tops, bottoms, and reversals can be identified using the realized profits and realized loss metrics.

Watch our 101 video guide here.

#Bitcoin transfer volumes continue to be dominated by institutional size flows, with more than 65% of all transactions being larger than $1M in value.

The uptrend in institutional dominance in onchain volumes started around Oct 2020 when prices were around $10k to $11k.

Live Chart

With #Bitcoin trading down over 50% from ATHs, investor profitability has deteriorated, and heavy losses are being realized onchain.

In our latest video report, we demonstrate a suite of tools and historic patterns we use to navigate bearish conditions.

Watch out Video Report for Week 4

#Bitcoin Short-Term Holders are currently holding historically large unrealized losses.

The STH-NUPL metric tracks aggregate unrealized loss held by the STH cohort, in proportion to the market cap.

A value of -40% is coincident with some of the deepest sell-offs in history.

Live Chart

#Bitcoin bulls have been put firmly on the back-foot, with prices cut in half since the Nov ATH.

In our latest analysis we seek to define whether #Bitcoin has entered a prolonged bear, using investor psychology, behaviour, and network profitability.

Read our analysis in The Week On-chain

#Bitcoin is down ~50% from the November ATH, making this the second deepest drawdown in this halving cycle.

Corrections in 2017, and early-2021 were much shallower between 20% and 40%, whilst July 2021 reached a drawdown of -54%.

Live Chart

As #Bitcoin trades below $40k, a key question is what are the primary forces driving the market lower?

To answer this, we investigate:
- Onchain and exchange flows
- Investor spending behaviour
- Futures leverage flush

Watch our latest video analysis: Surveying the 21-Jan Sell-off

#Bitcoin investors have realised large losses during this sell-off, with net daily losses between $600M and $875M/day.

Whilst these are significant sums, they remain small relative to $1B+ losses realised during the May-June capitulation, and the deleveraging of 4-December.

Live Chart

#Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) presents the magnitude of $BTC holder unrealized profit and loss, as a proportion of the Market Cap.

NUPL is currently trading at 0.43, the lowest level of network profitability since July 2021.

Live chart

#Bitcoin bears are putting the pressure on this week, driving network profitability to multi-month lows.

Meanwhile, supply dynamics are still constructive, and a potential short squeeze remains a short-term possibility.

Watch more in our Video Report for Week 3

The #Bitcoin Bears are putting the pressure on HODLers, pushing the total supply in profit down to 70%.

Meanwhile, derivatives leverage remains very hot, with funding rates heading into negative territory last week.

Read our analysis in The Week Onchain

#Bitcoin Futures open interest has pushed to new ATHs this week, increasing the chances of a leverage flush.

However, with many longs already liquidated, could it squeeze out shorts?

Watch our latest Video Report for our assessment of market conditions.

The #Bitcoin market sold off again this week, seeing 6 of 7 days closing in the red.

Meanwhile, open interest in futures markets soars to new ATHs, longs are liquidated, and a possible short squeeze is developing.

Read our analysis in The Week Onchain

#Bitcoin long liquidation dominance has hit 69%, the highest level since the May 2021 deleveraging event.

This means that the majority of liquidations in futures markets over recent weeks were long traders attempting to catch the knife.

Live Chart: https://glassno.de/3Ghx9QH

Our first Video Report is live for 2022!

We provide an assessment of #Bitcoin onchain activity, and recent supply dynamics.

The analysis also covers $BTC movements from Liquid into Illiquid wallets, and the cost basis of Long- and Short-Term Holders.

Watch our Video Report here.