Glassnode

Strategy Watch is our monthly read on fund performance, capital flows, and allocator positioning across digital assets, produced with Crypto Insights Group

Edition #7 is live now 👈

1.05M $BTC of long-term holder supply sits between $83K and $86K, the first heavy cost-basis shelf above spot at $79K.

Effectively all of it has held through the entire drawdown, making that band the test of whether patient supply sells at breakeven.

👉 https://research.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-34-2026/

After large market moves, staying objective and level-headed is difficult.

Our latest weekly report walks you through the data: the liquidation cascade, who bought the squeeze, and the supply now sitting overhead.

https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2092605995356966938

Squeeze into Supply: The Week On-chain 34 is live.

What stands between this recovery and the January high is one band of supply between $81K and $86K.

Bitcoin ran 26% off its mid-August low on a record short flush, and real money followed it up.

Bitcoin Vector's impulse flipped positive from the lows.

$BTC has advanced roughly 20% since.

The strategy is currently fully allocated and in profit, and the next upside target sits at $82.8k.

Full access

$5 billion of IBIT options expire on September 18.

Most of that is calls: $3B vs $2B in puts.

Max pain sits at $40, which corresponds to a $BTC price of approximately $71k.

$BTC has surged toward $80k as spot, derivatives and ETF demand accelerate. Rising activity and profitability support the move, though muted macro inflows suggest it remains tactically driven.

Read this week’s Market Pulse👇

Market buyers stepped in heavily as $BTC edged above $64k.

This buy-side aggression then helped to fuel the breakout and kept volume delta consistently positive until $76k.

That buy pressure remains strong at these levels.

#BTC investors are paying up for upside exposure.

25-delta call vol has been outpacing puts at every maturity since the breakout.

Skew is at its lowest of the year across the curve and flipped negative on the front end.

https://twitter.com/n3ocortex/status/2090786305105973305

The altcoin market has entered a state of optimism.

85% of alts reached funding rates above their mean.

This is the highest print we've seen for this metric since BTC was trading at all time highs.

In an alt season, these conditions can last for many weeks.

Close to $1B has flowed into Bitcoin ETFs in the last 3 days.

This is the strongest 3-day inflow since $BTC was last trading above $80k.

The dollar debasement narrative is back after the Treasury’s latest buyback announcement.

$BTC has led the move, up about 21% since the announcement, while gold also rose and equities barely moved.

$BTC has erased 3 months of underperformance against the S&P 500 in the last 72 hours.

As we showed several days ago, stretches of relative BTC underperformance are common.

However, when BTC does outperform, the excess gains tend to be significant.

https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2089664677177700620

High conviction buyers have been accumulating $BTC since January.

We saw similar behavior in 2022.

This cycle, the share of supply that was bought by this cohort is even larger than last cycle.

https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2089739670242660761