Glassnode

Our liquidation heatmaps showed a massive short liquidation build-up before $BTC's move up yesterday.

For anyone using our hyperliquid heatmaps, the asymmetrical weakness was obvious up to 10 days before the actual move.

https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2090110942789210113

@blocks and @Tesla are the top 2 major companies still in profit on their Bitcoin treasuries.

Nearly every other company on the list is now below or at its cost basis.

Also worth a mention is Bitcoin Group SE, a close third.

https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2090035547364528559

The last daily $BTC close this large was in February, and that was just the rebound from the -14% day before it.

This one had no crash to bounce off. Against its own 30d volatility it was a 5.8 sigma move – the largest to the upside since October 2023.

$HYPE and $ETH are leading the major crypto assets during today’s rally.

Despite many coins showing double digit gains, these two assets are outpacing all other majors today.

Elevated yields keep BTC anchored near cycle lows while gold and oil rally. Price sits below two key cost bases in a shallow capitulation. Perpetual demand improves but US spot lags and volatility compresses. The bottoming process is underway.

https://x.com/i/article/2090109283220299776

$500m worth of shorts were just liquidated within minutes.

As BTC spiked to over $69k, open interest dropped due to positions being force-closed.

It looks like the market was predominantly short for this move up.

Most public $BTC treasuries are underwater.

Price is below their aggregate cost basis, and the share of companies sitting at a loss has climbed back toward around 80%

Strong hands are buying $BTC.

Bottoms are formed when profit taking slows and conviction buyers step in. This setup looks similar to what we saw during 2022.

The largest increase in BTC held by conviction buyers occurred when BTC dropped to $60k in January.

$BTC has held Defensive for two weeks, 30/100 on the Glassnode Market Compass.

Macro did the lifting, +24 on the month. Valuation stays at the cycle's discounted end, 16/100.

Cheap and improving. The missing leg is flows, light at 30.

Read it daily:

$BTC is underperforming the S&P 500 on 2 out of 3 trading days.

However, when BTC does outperform, the excess returns (green) are significantly larger.

Also noteworthy is that these excess returns have been slowly degrading over the years.

https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2089442880255607037

$BTC outperformed the stock market today.

This has become a less common occurrence lately.

1/2

In fact, BTC only outperformed the S&P500 on around one third of trading days over the last 3 months.

This is the longest underperformance streak we've seen over the last 6 years of history. The question now is whether this is the start of a trend or just one of those 3 days.

2/2

$BTC holds near $63.6k as weak spot liquidity, ETF outflows and loss realization keep conditions subdued. Stabilising capital flows suggest selling pressure may be easing, but conviction remains limited.

Read this week’s Market Pulse👇

This is one of the cheapest times to buy volatility in years.

However, the data shows recent buyers still did not make money.

$BTC simply delivered less movement than people paid for.

Consumer Confidence recently hit an all-time low as the stock market continued to make new highs.

This weak sentiment is pushing money out of cash and into equities, AI, and commodities.

$BTC has been significantly neglected by this rotation

Did whales go long at the top of the local $BTC range?

Whale net long positioning on Hyperliquid peaked right into resistance.

Spot and flow data still show no matching demand.

Read our latest weekly article "Trigger Happy" for analyses like this👇

https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2087586319983882446

The support under $BTC has started to disappear.

The heavy wall of buy orders that built below price in June has begun to drain away. What remains is a much thinner floor.

In our weekly updates we've been monitoring this metric closely 👇

https://x.com/glassnode/status/2087586319983882446?s=20