Glassnode

$BTC options are turning more constructive: volatility is easing, the put/call ratio is at a six-month low, and upside exposure is rebuilding.

Here's what BTC options data reveals about positioning, volatility, and sentiment beneath the surface.👇

$BTC implied volatility has fallen from 48 to 40 as price recovered. The decline in DVOL shows the options market unwinding part of June’s fear premium, although volatility remains above May lows, signalling that uncertainty has eased, not disappeared.
https://glassno.de/4fkriN4

$BTC is consolidating near $63K, below a dense negative-gamma cluster around $68K–$70K. A move into this zone could trigger more pro-cyclical dealer hedging and amplify volatility.
https://glassno.de/4wRJMvO

$BTC’s options put/call ratio has fallen to a six-month low near 0.59, signalling a decisive shift toward call-heavy positioning. As price stabilises around $64K, traders appear to be reducing downside hedges and rebuilding upside exposure, a constructive shift in sentiment.
https://glassno.de/45aozBe

To size how intensely long-term holders are anchoring the sell side, we can zoom into exchange flows directly.

The Relative LTH/STH Realized P&L to Exchanges breaks down what share of coins flowing into exchanges carry a profit or loss, and which cohort is driving it. Currently, more than 65% of exchange inflows are attributable to long-term holders realizing losses, a reading consistent with prior bear market phases where this cohort dominated the sell side before eventually exhausting.

Until this share begins to compress, the structural sell pressure from cycle-top buyers remains the dominant force in exchange flow.

📉 http://glassno.de/btc-lth-sth-exchange-rpnl

Quoting cryptovizart:
One of the metrics I watch most closely when trying to gauge a bear market's end is, Realized Loss volume (in USD) by the 1-2 year holders.

This age bracket captures coins last moved roughly 12 to 24 months ago, placing them closest to cycle-peak buyers. As frustration builds with sustained price underperformance, this cohort tends to progressively increase loss realization.

Historically, bear markets have not found durable footing until this specific group exhausts its sell pressure. When the 30D-SMA of their realized loss cools and rolls over, it has often been among the clearest early signals that the heaviest distribution phase is behind the market.

Worth watching closely.

📉 http://glassno.de/btc-realized-loss-1y2y

Adding to the sell-side pressure from LTH loss realization, short-term holders who bought near the recent lows are now taking profit at volumes last seen close to the peak in May.

Two forces anchoring the rally simultaneously:
1- Cycle-top buyers reducing losses into strength
2- Local-low buyers locking in gains.

Both are selling into the same price recovery.

📉 http://glassno.de/btc-sth-realized-profit

Quoting cryptovizart:
As price rallies toward $66k, LTH realized loss volume is spiking!

Cycle-top buyers are using the relief rally as an exit opportunity, locking in losses at a smaller margin than the sub-60k lows allowed. Selling into strength rather than waiting for recovery is a pattern consistent with exhausted conviction among underwater long-term holders.

📉 http://glassno.de/btc-lth-realized-loss

Green Shoots

Bitcoin's bottom is still building, but its character is shifting. Long-term holder capitulation is cooling, buyers absorbed the June lows, and price is climbing back toward the levels that capped it

Read the full Week On-Chain👇

Top traders on Hyperliquid are aggressively long $BTC, showing some of the highest sustained long positioning we’ve recorded. This exposure exceeds what was seen during the last run to around $83k, pointing to strong speculative demand at these levels.

📊https://glassno.de/4wGsPnV

Trading activity in US spot ETFs sits in a quiet regime. Volumes are down 78% from the peak and below 2024 levels. A sustained recovery in $BTC price momentum would likely require attention and market participation to return from other asset classes.

📊https://glassno.de/4pDBa9P

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We measure transaction-submission latency from probes around the world.

Ohio: 3 ms
Virginia: 18 ms
Chicago: 27 ms
London: 91 ms
Tokyo: 140 ms
Sydney: 200 ms

Proximity provides up to 2 blocks worth of edge. Traders in the US could be frontrunning those across the world with ease.

Live map for all chains →

$BTC recovered toward $64K, but weak spot participation and subdued on-chain activity suggest the move lacks broad conviction. Institutions are returning, while options remain defensive.

Read this week’s Market Pulse👇