Glassnode

Bottom Building in Progress

Bitcoin remains in deep value after five months below key investor cost bases. LTH capitulation has peaked at $280M/day while ETF flows stay net negative. Derivatives lean cautiously long, but the options surface still prices downside. The bottoming process is advancing, not yet complete.

Read the full Week On-Chain👇

First eventful order flow in weeks. Aggressive shorting into the 58k lows, twice. Unfortunately for bears, the retest coincided with spot sell pressure easing. All of this short OI has since been flushed. Notably, BTC remained strong today despite negative news of MSTR selling

Bitcoin's easing into consolidation. Selling has cooled, futures longs are piling back in, and options traders aren't as spooked about downside anymore. ETF outflows are drying up too. Hot capital is creeping back though, which could stir up volatility even as profits climb.

Read this week’s Market Pulse👇

Bitcoin's easing into consolidation. Selling has cooled, futures longs are piling back in, and options traders aren't as spooked about downside anymore. ETF outflows are drying up too. Hot capital is creeping back though, which could stir up volatility even as profits climb.

Read this week’s Market Pulse👇
glassno.de/4eZQxV4

The options market is currently pricing in low future volatility for $BTC. While upside expectations remain unchanged we see less demand for short exposure. This could be the first sign of optimism returning to the options market.

https://glassno.de/4wpfdgH

One of our most insightful on chain metrics is the Hyperliquid Entry Price Heatmap. It shows the exact price levels at which traders enter positions. Large longs from $72-76k and shorts from $60k are currently under water, leading to fragility in either direction.

https://glassno.de/44Imuwb

Bottoms are formed by a shift in regime.

The Vector framework is still signaling a Strong Risk-Off environment for Bitcoin. However, under the surface, metrics are beginning to pivot. A potential bottom may be forming.

We'll alert you the second it confirms

Altcoin Cycle Signal update: the altcoin signal remains firmly in "altcoin season". This is strength beyond the denominator effect we described last month. Alts remain strong both on a relative and absolute basis.
https://glassno.de/3RhFoXG

Quoting @glassnode:
The Altcoin Cycle Signal is back in Altcoin Season. The typical version of this print has alts running while BTC stays bid. Currently, we see alts running out of sellers after nearly two years and BTC drawing down aggressively. For now, the BTC side is still doing most of the work.
https://glassno.de/4eIE8Vr

As $BTC extends its drawdown, options markets are repricing risk, volatility, and the probabilities investors assign to the next major move.

Here's what BTC options data reveals about positioning, volatility, and sentiment beneath the surface.👇

DVOL is trending higher as $BTC's sell-off extends, signalling a gradual repricing of future volatility. The move reflects growing uncertainty, though implied volatility remains well below the extremes seen during major market dislocations.
https://glassno.de/4y3vzgE

Despite Bitcoin's rebound from $58K, Skew remains firmly positive, indicating puts continue to command a premium over calls. Demand for downside protection persists, although the retreat from June's extremes suggests defensive positioning is beginning to ease.
https://glassno.de/3SGoSAY

With $BTC still trading in negative gamma territory, dealer hedging may continue to amplify price swings. Combined with elevated implied volatility and persistent demand for puts, the options market remains cautiously defensive.
https://glassno.de/3QDXIKu