Glassnode

USVIX, a TradFi volatility indicator tracking expected 30-day fear in the S&P 500 options market, is now live on @glassnode
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The timing could not be more relevant.

Since the US Spot Bitcoin ETFs emerged, the link between BTC and US equities has only grown stronger. Stock market fear is now Bitcoin's fear, too.

📉 glassno.de/4dyORCK

#Bitcoin pushed higher in a sharp impulsive move, reclaiming the $69k level after consolidating above $65k, with momentum accelerating into the end of the period.

Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/4ve4ea6

As price probed the $70K region, Realized Profit/hour spiked above $20M, signalling a local exhaustion.
A pattern consistent since February 2026:
Every approach to the $70k–$80K band meets thin liquidity and profit-taking pressure, capping the bounce.
📉 glassno.de/4c3bGfu

With more than half of the supply underwater, investors who accumulated above $2 over the past 12 months have been realizing losses at a pace of $20M – $110M/day since November 2025.
📉 glassno.de/4sf6paE

With price trading at $1.33, the Percent of XRP Supply in Profit has declined to 43.4%, the lowest since July 2024.

The big hands are bleeding.

With price contracting from ATH, Sharks & Whales (0.1K–10K BTC) are realizing losses at scale. The 7D-SMA of realized loss is now at >$200M/day.
Typical capitulation behaviour from larger entities.

📉 glassno.de/4v9gzw7

Bitcoin Block 943,400

Only 1,600 blocks (~11 days) until we hit the halfway point to the next halving.
Block 945,000 is coming.

📉 glassno.de/4v5TASP

The Week On-Chain 13, 2026
No Catalyst, No Range Break

Bitcoin remains rangebound between $60k and $70k as spot demand shows early absorption and derivatives reset. Volatility cools and positioning balances, but without a clear catalyst, the market lacks the conviction needed for a sustained breakout.

Executive Summary

- Total Supply in Loss sits near 8.4M BTC, echoing the Q2 2022 structure, when roughly 3M BTC needed to be redistributed before the market could reclaim its cycle mid-line.

- Coinbase Spot CVD has turned marginally positive, suggesting spot buyers are starting to absorb sell-side pressure, though demand remains well below the levels typically seen at durable lows.

- Perpetual positioning is now far less momentum-driven, with bullish exposure being unwound and short-side interest re-emerging, leaving futures more balanced but also more cautious.

Read the full Week On-Chain

The 30D-SMA of total daily transaction fees has declined to 2.5 BTC/day, the lowest level since March 2011.

Fee compression of this magnitude reflects a significant reduction in on-chain demand for block space, consistent with subdued network.

📉 glassno.de/3NVcqes

The 7D-SMA of US Spot ETF Netflow has turned negative since early last week, with 200–500 BTC in net daily outflows.

Small in magnitude, but persistent. A quiet signal that institutional demand conviction remains tentative at current price levels.

📉glassno.de/4bJAHgX

🔁UPDATE:

The recent rally toward $76k coincided with smaller wallet cohorts shifting toward distribution. 🟥
Broad-based accumulation across wallet sizes remains absent, limiting the sustainability of upward moves.

📉 glassno.de/4uPYF1e

#BTC broke back below $70k before finding support near $65k, with a modest rebound back towards $67k into the weekend. Momentum remains tentative, with lower highs still defining the short-term structure.

Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/4m8myxm

BTC sits at the lower bound of the new buyers' cost basis range ($60k–$70k).
Supply accumulation in this range is notable, but the cluster is thinner than historical analogs that preceded a strong recovery.
The accumulation setup is constructive in form, not yet in magnitude.

📉 glassno.de/4uYOmbq

📊 Strategy Watch #2 is live
glassno.de/47m1Nbe

Built to address a clear demand for high-signal, impartial analysis of fund-level performance and allocation trends in digital assets, Strategy Watch returns following strong feedback on the inaugural edition.

Inside the new edition:
🔹 All strategy types posted negative returns in February, except for one
🔹 A macro portfolio manager on navigating current geopolitical challenges
🔹 How 300+ managers expect the crypto market to perform over the next three months.

And more. 👉 Read the full edition
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