Glassnode

The Week On-Chain 12, 2026
Awaiting Liquidity

#BTC has stabilised around $70k, with ETF flows improving and sell-side pressure easing. However, muted spot volume and overhead supply suggest stronger demand is still needed to turn this into a recovery.

Executive Summary

- Unrealised losses have increased but remain within historical norms, indicating stress without full capitulation.

- US Spot ETF flows have turned modestly positive after sustained outflows, signalling early signs of institutional re-engagement.

- Spot volumes remain subdued, with limited expansion on the recovery, suggesting weak conviction and selective dip-buying.

Read the full Week On-Chain 👇
https://glassno.de/4sATTn1

New Metric: Accumulation Trend Score by Wallet Cohort

This metric breaks down 30D accumulation behaviour by entity size, combining participation rate and balance change into a single score.

Score near 1 🟦 larger entities accumulating.
Score near 0 🟥 distribution or inactivity.
📉 glassno.de/4uPYF1e

Glassnode is expanding its macro indicator suite — bringing traditional market data directly into on-chain analysis.
This gives investors the tools to find alpha in the cross-analysis of crypto and macro.
No more switching between platforms.
📉 glassno.de/4d1zUc9

#BTC swung from $76k to $67k before rebounding to $70k. Spot and ETF demand cooled, derivatives turned more defensive, and on-chain activity stayed soft, pointing to a consolidative, cautious market backdrop.

Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/4bDDYwL

Demand Exhaustion Update

The 24HR-SMA of Net Realized P&L peaked at $17M/hr before price lost momentum and contracted back below $70k.
Profit-taking at this threshold continues to absorb upside momentum, a pattern now observed across multiple rally attempts.
Broader geopolitical uncertainty appears to be compressing demand depth, limiting the market's capacity to absorb even moderate realization events.

📉glassno.de/4bppmCo

A simple 30D MA crossover of BTC price vs. Max Pain generates long/short signals that outperform buy-and-hold over a long time horizon.
Exploratory, not prescriptive. But the signal quality warrants attention.

Full interactive backtest available in Glassnode Studio👇
📉glassno.de/3NFyKsm

Digital assets have matured into a functioning, multi-layered economy that can be measured, analysed, and compared against traditional macroeconomic benchmarks.

In a new report with WisdomTree, we examine the blockchain ecosystem through familiar economic and market-structure concepts, focusing on observable activity:

• Transaction fees as revealed demand for network utility
• Security provisioning through economic commitment via mining (energy) or staking (capital)
• Exchanges and custodians as gateways to traditional capital markets
• Stablecoins as the primary settlement and liquidity layer
• DeFi and tokenization as extensions of on-chain financial activity.

Taken together, these components form a financial system that increasingly mirrors traditional markets in structure and function.

📑 Get the report here

The Week On-Chain 11, 2026
Supply Cleared, Conviction Pending

Bitcoin has rebounded toward ~$74k as ETF inflows and spot demand recover. Shorts remain crowded with negative funding, while easing options stress suggests improving conditions but still early conviction.

Executive Summary

- Bitcoin has broken above $70k and entered a thinly accumulated air gap between $72k and $82k, with URPD confirming limited on-chain resistance until the upper band near $82k.
- ETF inflows have rebounded over the past month, marking a renewed wave of institutional demand and supporting the shift back toward spot-led market strength.
- Implied volatility has declined across tenors, reflecting a reduction in hedging demand and a normalization in market conditions.

📰 http://glassno.de/4siuWg1

#Bitcoin rebounded from the $66k higher low, grinding steadily higher through the week with strong daily closes that pushed price back toward $73k.

Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/3N9wOsa

A large pocket of negative gamma sits near the $75k strike in #BTC options markets.

Market makers appear structurally short calls at this level. As spot approaches, hedging flows could intensify, potentially amplifying upside price moves.

📈 https://glassno.de/471O35p

For near-term expiries (1W), Max Pain appears to act as a dynamic support during uptrends and resistance during downtrends.
This adds a derivatives-based reference point to price structure analysis that is rarely available in crypto markets.

📉glassno.de/472oSj4

New Metric Launch: Options Max Pain (Time Series)

Max Pain is the strike price at which the total value of expiring options (calls + puts) is minimized, theoretically maximizing losses for option holders.
Glassnode now tracks this across maturity buckets (1W, 1M, 3M, 6M, aggregated) at 10-min, hourly, and daily resolution.

📉glassno.de/4rvkAIk

A hallmark of bear markets: STH Supply in Profit falling below 50%, meaning the majority of recent buyers are underwater.
Demand-side risk appetite tends to remain suppressed until this flips back above 50%.
Watch this level as a precondition for any sustained recovery.
📉 glassno.de/3PyUZRj