Glassnode

Since mid-November, BTC has fallen below the 0.75 quantile, putting >25% of supply underwater.
This leaves the market in a fragile balance between top-buyer capitulation risk and seller-exhaustion bottom formation.
At $93K, price remains highly sensitive to macro shocks until the market can reclaim the 0.75 quantile ($95.8K) and then the 0.85 quantile (~$106.2K).

📉glassno.de/3KEPxKM

The Week On-Chain 48, 2025
Bitcoin stabilizes above the True Market Mean, but market structure now mirrors Q1 2022 with over 25% of supply underwater. Demand is weakening across ETFs, spot, and futures, while options show compressed volatility & cautious positioning.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin stabilizes above the True Market Mean, but the broader structure now resembles Q1 2022 with >25% of supply underwater.
- Capital momentum remains positive, supporting consolidation, though far below mid-2025 peaks.
- 0.75–0.85 quantile band ($96.1K–$106K) is the key zone for restoring structure; failure increases downside risk.
- ETF flows turn negative, and spot CVD rolls over, signalling weakening demand.
- Futures open interest declines and funding resets neutral, reflecting a risk-off stance.
- Options market sees IV compression, softer skew, and flows shifting from puts to cautious call selling.
- Options appear underpriced, with realised volatility exceeding implied, putting pressure on short-gamma traders.
- Overall, the market remains fragile, dependent on holding key cost-basis zones unless macro shocks break the balance.

Read more in The Week On-Chain

Tune in to our webinar with Keyrock at 4pm CET today, where Glassnode Analyst Chris Beamish and Keyrock Digital Asset Researcher Ben Harvey will unpack the data and market forces behind BTC’s and ETH’s diverging usage patterns.
🔗 Event link: https://glassno.de/4pPHt98

The Glassnode x Fasanara Q4 2025 Digital Assets Report is live!
🔗 Download your copy at https://glassno.de/4pIbsQ1.

Drawing on Glassnode’s data and analytics and Fasanara’s trading perspective, we outline how market structure has shifted across spot, ETFs, futures, stablecoins, and tokenized assets.

From Bitcoin’s spot-driven expansion to the rise of tokenization and decentralized perps, the market is reshaping around new structural anchors. For professionals navigating a fast-changing market, the report offers a consolidated view of the digital asset ecosystem.

📄 Read more on Glassnode Insights → https://glassno.de/3MzXJwk

$Bitcoin shows early stabilisation as RSI rebounds and CVD turns positive, but spot volume, on-chain activity and liquidity remain weak. ETFs see inflows, yet futures de-risk and short-term capital dominates.

Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/48cCFEP

A new cost-basis cluster formed after Bitcoin’s drop into the low-$80K region, showing fresh accumulation at these levels. This zone is now one of the densest on the heatmap and could act as a strong support area, likely to be defended by recent buyers.
📉https://glassno.de/48mkMlC

🔄 Update:

With spot price now at $90.9K, several key levels have shifted:

🔴 STH Cost Basis: $104.2K
--- Spot Price: $90.9K ---
🟡 Active Investors Mean: $88.1k
🟢True Market Mean: $81.7K
🔵 Realized Price: $56.4K

📊http://glassno.de/3XDy2xe

XRP’s futures OI has fallen from 1.7B XRP in early October to 0.7B XRP (~59% flush-out).
Paired with the funding rate dropping from ~0.01% to 0.001% (7D-SMA), 10/10 marked a structural pause in XRP speculators’ appetite to bet aggressively on upside.

📉 http://glassno.de/4pwZ0Cw

Breaking above the top-buyers’ supply clusters is a key prerequisite for regaining momentum toward a new ATH.
The major immediate clusters sit at $93k–$96K & $100k–$108K, where typically some degree of resistance from recent buyers is expected.

📊 glassno.de/4p2DTbn

$BTC sits beneath every short-term holder's realized price but remains well above deeper realized levels, leaving the market in no-man’s-land.
Regaining these bands would mark the first meaningful sign of structural recovery.
📉https://glassno.de/4rlNr2Y

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Ends on #CyberMonday

The $2.0 level remains a major psychological zone for Ripple holders.
Since early 2025, each time XRP has retested $2, investors have realized $0.5B–$1.2B per week in losses.

This underscores how heavily this level influences spending behavior.

📉http://glassno.de/4obHgvn

$BTC broke below $90K and tested $80K before a mild rebound. Momentum stays oversold but shows early signs ofnexhaustion. Derivs and spot flows remain weak, pointing to orderly de-risking.

Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/49yJ5iz