The Week On-Chain 48, 2025
Bitcoin stabilizes above the True Market Mean, but market structure now mirrors Q1 2022 with over 25% of supply underwater. Demand is weakening across ETFs, spot, and futures, while options show compressed volatility & cautious positioning.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin stabilizes above the True Market Mean, but the broader structure now resembles Q1 2022 with >25% of supply underwater.
- Capital momentum remains positive, supporting consolidation, though far below mid-2025 peaks.
- 0.75–0.85 quantile band ($96.1K–$106K) is the key zone for restoring structure; failure increases downside risk.
- ETF flows turn negative, and spot CVD rolls over, signalling weakening demand.
- Futures open interest declines and funding resets neutral, reflecting a risk-off stance.
- Options market sees IV compression, softer skew, and flows shifting from puts to cautious call selling.
- Options appear underpriced, with realised volatility exceeding implied, putting pressure on short-gamma traders.
- Overall, the market remains fragile, dependent on holding key cost-basis zones unless macro shocks break the balance.

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