Glassnode

Looking at price performance, SOL outpaced both ETH and BTC for most of Q4 2024. However, since early December, ETH has taken the lead, outperforming the other two assets.

30-day performance:
ETH: +26.96%
BTC: +17.49%
SOL: +1.61%

A clear shift in momentum. 📊 https://glassno.de/4ggZUiw

Analyzing the weekly Realized Cap—a proxy for capital flow—SOL expanded faster than BTC and ETH until early December (over +5%).

Since then, BTC has taken the lead, with ETH outpacing SOL:
BTC: +1.89%
SOL: +1.11%
ETH: +1.03%

Capital flows and price trends have shifted. The tides have turned.
📊: https://glassno.de/4fkLyMz

Bitcoin Spending Power Law: A New Predictable Framework
Glassnode's new research reveals how Bitcoin holder behavior follows a power-law decay, offering a groundbreaking perspective on coin age and spending probabilities.

Executive Summary
- Spending probability drops by a factor of 10 for every tenfold increase in coin age, creating a measurable and predictable pattern.

- Coins held for over 3-4 years rarely move, signaling either strong conviction or potential loss.

- A simple heuristic predicts with 98% accuracy that coins younger than 7 days will move, providing actionable short-term insights.

This framework enables investors to segment holders into behavior-driven cohorts and track market sentiment with greater precision.

Read more in the full research report here.

The Week On-Chain 50, 2024
Bitcoin’s journey from the Genesis Block to $100k per BTC is a historic moment and a new high watermark in adoption. With 19.8M BTC mined, $131T in transfer volume processed, and 1.12B transactions, the $100k price milestone is yet another sign of Bitcoin's resilience.

Executive Summary
- The Bitcoin price crossed the $100k mark for the first time on 5 December, after 5,256 trading days, and hitting a market cap briefly exceeding $2 Trillion.

- Miners have earned a cumulative $71.49 Billion since inception, reflecting the network's robust security and economic incentives.

- The network has processed a total of 1.12 Billion transactions and settled $131.25 Trillion in transfer volume, with entity-adjusted figures providing an even clearer view of genuine economic activity.

- A breakdown of supply held by various cohorts highlights a broad distribution of Bitcoin ownership, ranging from retail investors to institutional-scale holders.

Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.

📊 Bitcoin Market Cycle Update

Current ROI:
Here's how #Bitcoin’s ROI since cycle low compares to the last two cycles so far:

🔸 2015-2018: 5.90x
🔸 2018-2022: 10.47x
🔸 2022+ (current): 5.98x

The current cycle is 26.94% below the average ROI of the last two cycles (8.18x), highlighting the challenges of sustaining exponential growth as liquidity needs increase.

Bull Market Volatility:
Here’s how this bull market’s corrections compare to the previous cycles:

Average Drawdowns:
🔹 2022+: -7.68%
🔹 Overall: -16.24%

Max Drawdowns:
🔹 2022+: -26.25%
🔹 Overall: -71.15% (2011-2013)

This cycle stands out as the least volatile, with the mildest corrections compared to its predecessors.

Bitcoin’s evolution continues, balancing reduced volatility with steady growth as the market matures and becomes more institutionalized. 📈

Bitcoin’s market cycles are marked by a gradual transition of wealth from long-term holders to short-term holders. This dynamic is playing out similarly in the current cycle but with additional nuances due to the influence of spot ETFs:

As long-term holders are typically defined as those holding Bitcoin for at least 155 days, many early ETF-driven buyers now fall into this category.

🔹 Spot ETF buyers, who began accumulating heavily early in the year, swelled the 6-12 month cohort to 25% by August. Since October, this group has reduced to 16%, possibly due profit-taking by these newer market participants.

🔹 A more concerning trend is the decline in the 1-2 year and 2-3 year cohorts, which represent seasoned holders who accumulated during the June-November 2022 market bottoming phase. Their distribution suggests we are transitioning toward the later stages of the cycle.

🔹 Holders from the 3-5 year cohort remain relatively stable at ~13.9%, indicating that these holders don’t yet seem incentivized to sell.

The Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) metric reveals where Bitcoin supply has clustered at key price levels. Recent data shows $99,559 as the largest accumulation zone below $100K (a total of 125K BTC), while $96K–$98K, with 120K BTC accumulated, shapes up as a potential short-term support level.

CBD also highlights $101,669 (44K BTC) as a level to watch. While $99,559 shows stronger accumulation, it may act more as an area of interest than immediate resistance, depending on how market momentum evolves.

Typically exclusive to Professional plan users, the Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap is now accessible to Advanced plan users until the end of 2024. Explore it here: https://glassno.de/4ikd3ZA

Bitcoin briefly advanced above $100K - a historic milestone - but the move was short-lived. Where could the retracement stop? Glassnode’s new Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) metric offers on-chain insights into accumulation and distribution patterns, helping to spot critical price levels.

What is CBD? CBD is a heatmap that shows the total Bitcoin supply grouped by the average cost basis of investors at specific price levels. By visualizing where cost bases are concentrated, CBD helps identify key zones of support and resistance based on investor behavior.

Example Insight
The $96K–$98K range saw over 101K BTC accumulated, solidifying it as a strong support zone. Above $98K, ~81K BTC was acquired, forming short-term resistance. Below $96K, limited activity suggests weak support if prices retrace.

With CBD, you can move beyond price and volume data to analyze investor behavior and identify critical zones of interest with more precision. Learn more about CBD and how to use it here: https://glassno.de/4ijpUex

5808 days since Satoshi Nakamoto mined Block 1, the price for a single Bitcoin has reached $100K. What a journey it has been!

#Bitcoin's rally to the $99.4K ATH moved investor holdings to extreme profit levels, resulting in a sharp redistribution of supply.

With several risk metrics elevated, are we approaching a turning point? Our latest Week On-Chain explores the data: https://glassno.de/3VmOm4O

While #Bitcoin consolidates with temporary dips to the lower end of the $90K range, SOPR Momentum - a key measure of how the market responds to profit and loss pressures - continues to accelerate, indicating positive sentiment.

See the live chart here: https://glassno.de/3ZnUpqW
#BTC's SOPR Momentum assesses the average profit and loss magnitude of daily transactions, excluding internal transfers and self-spends. Using a fast/slow momentum crossover strategy, it identifies periods of heightened profit-taking relative to a longer-term baseline.

SOPR Momentum is a key component of #Bitcoin’s On-Chain Momentum Signal - Glassnode's proprietary framework to form data-driven views on market trends as they unfold. You can view its current status here: https://glassno.de/3ZmRW04

➡️Discover the other metrics in this signal and how they can guide market decisions: https://glassno.de/41cENJv