Bitcoin’s market cycles are marked by a gradual transition of wealth from long-term holders to short-term holders. This dynamic is playing out similarly in the current cycle but with additional nuances due to the influence of spot ETFs:

As long-term holders are typically defined as those holding Bitcoin for at least 155 days, many early ETF-driven buyers now fall into this category.

🔹 Spot ETF buyers, who began accumulating heavily early in the year, swelled the 6-12 month cohort to 25% by August. Since October, this group has reduced to 16%, possibly due profit-taking by these newer market participants.

🔹 A more concerning trend is the decline in the 1-2 year and 2-3 year cohorts, which represent seasoned holders who accumulated during the June-November 2022 market bottoming phase. Their distribution suggests we are transitioning toward the later stages of the cycle.

🔹 Holders from the 3-5 year cohort remain relatively stable at ~13.9%, indicating that these holders don’t yet seem incentivized to sell.