🇮🇷 Hormuz oil flows rise, but costs and risks could soon become unsustainable

Oil industry trackers say crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to 13-17 million barrels a day.

That may seem like a relatively modest drop from the 20 million barrels a day that flowed through the waterway before the Iran war.

But what is the cost?

🌏 Iran still keeps the strait closed, leaving vessels at risk of attack, while war-risk insurance premiums have soared to 5%–6% of cargo value, adding up to roughly $10 million per transit

🌏 Beyond insurance, a round trip for shuttle runs moving crude through the dangerous strait now costs $40 million, or $15-$20 per barrel. Compare that with the $1-$2-per-barrel “toll” proposed by Iran, which would carry no additional risk

🌏 The cost of hiring a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) has surged from $231,400 a day to $1.2 million

🌏 Ship-management companies are offering sailors bonuses of up to $25,000 per round trip

🌏 Ship-to-ship transfers are complicated and risky. Shuttles operate at night with transponders off and GPS signals disabled for hours, with navigation relying on old-school methods

🌏 The US must maintain a naval presence in the region to protect and oversee the scheme while facing the risk of attack itself. Another US carrier strike group, led by the USS Roosevelt, has been sent to the Gulf

Responsible Statecraft argues that the entire project, aimed at making Donald Trump appear to be “winning” ahead of the November midterms, is ultimately unsustainable.

Meanwhile, US strategic reserves are depleted, while gasoline and diesel prices at home remain high. Global oil prices also remain elevated despite reports of rising Gulf crude exports.

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