🚨 Buffett's own crash indicator is flashing red — and it's never been louder
Warren Buffett's favorite market gauge — the total value of US stocks divided by the size of the economy — is sitting at roughly 234–237%. Buffett himself said anything approaching 200% meant investors were "playing with fire." We're well past it, and have been for over a year.
🔶 US equities are now worth more than double the country's entire economic output
🔶 The only comparable reading was 1999–2000 — right before the dot-com bubble burst
🔶 Roughly a third of the entire stock market is just seven companies: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla
🔶 The combined valuation of AI-linked firms has grown by $27 trillion since late 2022 — about one-third of the market's total value
🔶 That's the money tied to 401(k)s and retirement funds across America
Per Bain & Company, the AI industry would need $2 trillion in annual revenue by 2030 just to pay for the data centers and compute already promised. It currently generates a fraction of that.
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