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Fact Market is a non-custodial prediction market on TON, running as a Telegram Mini App. Since April we've rebuilt it around one idea: the people who should be running prediction markets are the people who already own the audiences.Ask the question. Your members take positions. You take a cut. It settles on-chain.
🗓 What changed since AprilIn April, the feature we were proudest of was trustless claims: your position came with an Ed25519 receipt you could take straight to the contract, even if our backend vanished.
That feature no longer exists. We deleted it.
Not because it broke — because we decided you shouldn't have to claim anything at all.
Winners are paid automatically, on-chain, with no claim button. When a round resolves, the contract works through its own positions and pays every one in batches. Nothing to sign, no deadline to miss. Cancelled rounds refund the same way. Gas is on us.
🧩 How it works📣
If you run a group or channel:• Add the bot, promote it to admin — the group registers itself. No forms.
• Set your commission: 15% by default, anywhere from 0–30%, entirely yours.
• Every round announces itself and settles with a ranked winners post.
• Earnings go on-chain to your address. Gas costs you nothing.
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If you're just here to predict:• Open the Mini App — Telegram signs you in. No wallet needed to look around.
• Connect a TON wallet to take a position. Stake from 0.5 GRAM (TON).
• Holding another jetton? Swap it in one tap without leaving the app.
• Win, get paid. That's the entire loop.
Three market types: Up/Down — BTC, ETH or GRAM over 5, 15 or 60 minutes, settled by the price feed ·
Forecast — predict a number, the closest split the pool ·
Yes/No — the host asks and attests.
💎 Why it's actually different🏆
No claim button. Not "easy claims" — none. If you win, the contract pays you. The old way paid one winner at a time through a single wallet, about three a minute: a 500-member community would have waited three hours, starving every other market while it did. That's why hosting works now and didn't before.
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The fee only touches the loser pool. Your own stake is never taxed — enforced in the contract, not promised in a policy page. We built the version that taxed the whole pool, measured that it roughly doubled our revenue, and threw it away. Tax only the money that changes hands.
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Nobody is on the other side of your trade. Parimutuel: participants pool against each other, the platform never takes a position. No house book, no market maker, no empty order book. A round works with a handful of people — the size most Telegram communities actually are. Fewer than four and it cancels on-chain, everyone refunded.
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Rebuilt in Tolk. The Tact contracts are gone. Three registries in Tolk, TON's newest native contract language: 53% less bytecode, 33–66% less gas — straight into users' pockets at settlement. The port caught nine bugs the old stack would have shipped silently. We'd rather argue with a compiler than with mainnet.
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Short rounds only work because TON is fast. A five-minute market is a bad joke on a chain with minute-scale finality. Sub-second finality is what lets stake → close → resolve → paid fit inside a coffee break — a live 300-second round goes from first position to payout in about six minutes.
🗺 Where we actually areLive on TON mainnet since June, every registry code-hash verified against the build we analyzed. Automated symbolic analysis returns zero actionable findings.
Our first third-party host community went live last week, running Yes/No markets on Solana, NVIDIA and the World Cup. The pools are small. That's the honest state: the contracts are proven with real money on mainnet, and the communities are only just starting to arrive.
💬 Feedback welcomeIf you run a Telegram community and want to try hosting markets for it — or just want to argue about push settlement, parimutuel economics, or whether Tolk was worth the rewrite — I'd like to hear it.
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fact.market ·
Host a group ·
@factmarket_bot ·
@FactMarketX
