🇮🇷 | Mohammad Hossein Bagheri:

Ignoring the conditions that allow insecurity to recur in Sistan and Baluchestan is the biggest security mistake

Dr. Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, an international affairs expert and director of the Iqbal Think Tank, said in an interview with Raja News that the proposed 50,000-strong “Popular Fighters Front” appears to be an attempt to bring several long-standing armed groups under a common structure.

He warned that the formation of such an alliance should not be dismissed, as these groups have operated against Iran for years and may now be seeking greater coordination. Such a shift could affect recruitment, resource acquisition, and their ability to negotiate with potential foreign backers. However, he noted that it remains unclear whom the figure of 50,000 represents, whether active fighters, support-network members, or people who could potentially be mobilized. Therefore, they should not all be regarded as combat-ready forces.

Bagheri said the possible connection between this new organization and regional wartime developments must be taken seriously. With Iran facing external military and political pressure, he argued, an armed alliance along the country’s eastern border cannot be excluded from national security planning. He also warned of the possibility of simultaneous pressure on several fronts, with Iran managing security in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz while facing increased activity by armed groups in the east and west.

He added that creating pressure on multiple fronts does not necessarily require all armed groups to take orders from a single command. Shared interests and opportunities may be enough to produce simultaneous activity. He said developments in Baluchestan should therefore be examined within the broader framework of national security and regional conflict, rather than being treated solely as a local or border issue.

Bagheri also said some actors might consider using armed groups opposed to Iran as instruments of pressure. He argued that assessments of border insecurity should go beyond the official positions of Pakistan’s civilian government and examine local networks, informal power structures, and possible links between security personnel and armed groups.

He concluded that Iran needs three elements to strengthen security in the east: integrated and forward-looking intelligence, genuine cooperation with neighboring countries, and effective participation by local communities.

📌@enemywatch