— There is currently no real understanding of why America wants to impose its will and continue its aggression against Iran and the entire Resistance Axis, while the world stands on the brink of a major economic crisis due to the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. If Bab al-Mandab were also to be affected, the consequences could choke major global trade routes within a week. The alternatives proposed to avoid these routes are largely unrealistic, exposing a serious miscalculation by the aggressors and their regional allies, who failed to prepare adequately for such scenarios. They underestimated the possibility that Iran would take the confrontation in this direction, which is why the shockwaves of this crisis have not yet subsided.

The consequences would extend far beyond the region. Rising energy prices, mounting shipping costs, disruptions to supply chains, and growing uncertainty in international markets could place enormous pressure on economies already facing serious challenges. Countries dependent on energy imports and maritime trade would be particularly vulnerable, while businesses and consumers worldwide could bear the cost of a prolonged disruption. The longer the crisis continues, the more difficult it may become to contain its economic and strategic consequences.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s position appears even more shortsighted. The Saudi leadership must understand that Yemen could retaliate against Saudi targets in response to attacks on Yemeni territory, potentially without delay. Damage to Saudi oil infrastructure could trigger a catastrophic scenario for the country’s economy and exports. A heightened security threat could also drive away investors and undermine the economic stability Saudi Arabia has sought to build. Any disruption to oil production or exports would have consequences beyond Saudi Arabia, potentially adding further pressure to already unstable global energy markets.

Saudi Arabia must also consider that military escalation could narrow its options rather than strengthen its position. A conflict that expands to critical infrastructure and maritime routes could impose costs that cannot easily be reversed. The consequences would not be limited to the battlefield, but could affect investment, development projects, regional trade, and the country’s broader economic outlook. Under such circumstances, diplomacy would become increasingly important, even as the space for political compromise could become more difficult to secure.

Yemen still has several options available, and the scope for escalation remains significant. Any further expansion of the confrontation could create new challenges for regional security and international commerce. However, the question remains whether America and Israel would allow Saudi Arabia the political space to pursue negotiations and reach an understanding with Yemen.

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