Personally, I dislike holding a spread as wide as the 42/50 proposed by ZH.
Given the binary nature of the event—whether Bolsonaro wins or loses—I prefer to compress the spread as much as possible to trade it like a binary option.
Since the highest open interest on the chain is currently concentrated at the 43 and 45 strikes, liquidity should be optimal at these levels, allowing for tight pricing like 43/44, 43/45, or 44/45.
By doing this, you avoid the severe gamma stress that spikes if the underlying rallies past the strike and subsequently retraces. Your PnL profile becomes significantly less path-dependent.


Alternatively, you can deploy other structures: short a put spread to reduce the upfront cost of the option, or execute a calendar spread—shortening November volatility while longing December volatility—to capture the event-driven volatility premium collapse