Beta and correlation are not the same; rather, beta is the correlation adjusted by the ratio of the VVIX to the VIX
A) Dealer Positioning and Spot Moves:
When the VIX beta to the SPX is low (meaning the SPX underreacts to VIX movements), it indicates that the broader market is net selling options, leaving dealers long gamma.
If there is an upside move, the primary driver will be spot buying (dealers hedging).Conversely, a downside move will be driven by put buying, which will flip dealers into a short gamma position.
B) The Limits of Technical Analysis on that kind of charts :Be cautious when applying Technical Analysis (TA) to correlation or beta. These metrics are driven by macroeconomic determinants (such as global liquidity), meaning past behavior does not guarantee future results.
Currently, both the VIX and correlation are low. However, a shift in the market's reaction function to a reassessment of macro risk could trigger a sudden repricing of systemic risk (via cega/cross-gamma).
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