๐ญ Whatโs wrong with this cycle?? | Big Picture
#Bitcoin bottomed out in November 2022. Itโs been โup onlyโ for #BTC since then.
#OTHERSBTC has been going โdown onlyโ all this time.
This is why this cycle has been so bad for #Altcoin holders ๐๐คฎ
But what exactly went wrong and when? ๐ค Letโs take a deep dive into the market structure โฌ๏ธ
In 2015-2017 & 2019-2021 #OTHERSBTC and $BTC were rising in sync, but this time itโs truly different.
In the early stages of the Bull Cycle things looked very similar to the previous cycle. Take a look at two time periods: December 2018-August 2019 & November 2022-June 2023
$BTC bottoms out first, #OTHERSBTC makes a Lower Low in 6 months while $BTC rallies and switches the trend from Bear to Bull.
So in that period of time we have a Divergence between $BTC & #OTHERSBTC. We had that in 2019 and we had that in 2023.
August 2019 was the absolute bottom for #Alts against $BTC and we had a steady uptrend for the following 30 months!
This cycle we were on track to repeat the same pattern: #BTC bottomed out first, then it rallied and switched the trend from Bear to Bull while #Alts printed a Lower Low. June 2023 was supposed to be the ultimate bottom for #ALT/BTC pairs! We had a decent run up from June to January 2024, but then something broke โ
โDo you know what happened in January 2024? F*cking #Bitcoin ETFs got approved. Itโs been โdown onlyโ for #Alts since then ๐๐ตโ๐ซ
So now we have this giant Divergence between the price of #Bitcoin (sitting at the all-time high) and #OTHERSBTC (sitting at the 4-year low) ๐โโ๏ธ
I believe that eventually this Divergence will play out just like the one in Dec2018-Aug2019, but on a much bigger scale. It will be a MULTI-YEAR Uptrend for #OTHERSBTC ๐ (probably next cycle | if talking about cycles is even appropriate now lol)
So thatโs why I was wrong on #Alts in general. The prior cycleโs playbook just didnโt fit this time ๐คทโโ๏ธ Some #Alts like $SOL did exactly what I expected (made a new ATH), but thatโs because coins like #Solana had a very strong narrative and they moved up with #BTC in sync. The rest are just waiting for a #BTC.D Meltdown and a steady #OTHERSBTC uptrend ๐
CryptoBullet2021 Cycle Peak TVL - $180B Current TVL ~$120B Weโre still far from prior cycle peak in terms of Total Value Locked. The next 6 months should be very exciting ๐ฅ
Cycle TVL update
5 months have passed and we're still below the 2021 peak ๐ฅด
โSo you think $ETH will hit a new ATH, but #BTC won't? How is that possible?โ
Well, thatโs the pattern we see at the end of each cycle ๐โโ๏ธ ๐
Thereโs always a Bearish Divergence between $ETH and $BTC at the top of the cycle. Itโs called โliquidity rotationโ ๐ $ETH prints a Higher High while #BTC prints a Lower High.
โBut Sir, back in previous $BTC tops $ETH was holding up pretty well.โ
No, it was not! ๐ ๐
-39% in December 2017 -23% in April 2021 -27% now in October 2025
We just had our final correction on $ETH before entering price discovery ๐ฅ๐
So, let's sum it up. Here's my view on the #crypto market right now:
- #BTC is done (even a new ATH wonโt matter, itโs just noise at the Cycle Top); - $ETHUSD looks bullish, should enter price discovery soon; - $ETHBTC is ready for the final pump (Wave 5); - #Alts potentially can follow $ETH and go crazy once $ETH hits a new ATH and sustains it; - $BTC.D looks bearish, ready for the second wave down.
CryptoBullet#BITCOIN MACRO CHART Phase 1 of the Bull Market (Intro) ended when we lost the Support Trendline in August. Correction for the next couple of months (transition) before we kick off Phase 2 (Bull Run ๐) ๐ Bull Market Top: $100-130k 77ยฐ -> 59ยฐ -> 49ยฐ ->โฆ
#BITCOIN MACRO CHART UPDATE
Weโve already spent several MONTHS in my Purple Topping Zone ๐ช
๐ Bull Market Top: $100-130k - DONE! โ ๐
4-Year cycle has come to an end. If youโre still holding $BTC, in my opinion itโs time to take profits and prepare for a Bear Market ๐