💭 What’s wrong with this cycle?? | Big Picture

#Bitcoin bottomed out in November 2022. It’s been ‘up only’ for #BTC since then.

#OTHERSBTC has been going ‘down only’ all this time.

This is why this cycle has been so bad for #Altcoin holders 📉🤮

But what exactly went wrong and when? 🤔
Let’s take a deep dive into the market structure ⬇️

In 2015-2017 & 2019-2021 #OTHERSBTC and $BTC were rising in sync, but this time it’s truly different.

In the early stages of the Bull Cycle things looked very similar to the previous cycle.
Take a look at two time periods: December 2018-August 2019 & November 2022-June 2023

$BTC bottoms out first, #OTHERSBTC makes a Lower Low in 6 months while $BTC rallies and switches the trend from Bear to Bull.

So in that period of time we have a Divergence between $BTC & #OTHERSBTC. We had that in 2019 and we had that in 2023.

August 2019 was the absolute bottom for #Alts against $BTC and we had a steady uptrend for the following 30 months!

This cycle we were on track to repeat the same pattern: #BTC bottomed out first, then it rallied and switched the trend from Bear to Bull while #Alts printed a Lower Low. June 2023 was supposed to be the ultimate bottom for #ALT/BTC pairs! We had a decent run up from June to January 2024, but then something broke ❌

❓Do you know what happened in January 2024? F*cking #Bitcoin ETFs got approved. It’s been ‘down only’ for #Alts since then 📉😵‍💫

So now we have this giant Divergence between the price of #Bitcoin (sitting at the all-time high) and #OTHERSBTC (sitting at the 4-year low) 💁‍♂️

I believe that eventually this Divergence will play out just like the one in Dec2018-Aug2019, but on a much bigger scale. It will be a MULTI-YEAR Uptrend for #OTHERSBTC 📈 (probably next cycle | if talking about cycles is even appropriate now lol)


So that’s why I was wrong on #Alts in general. The prior cycle’s playbook just didn’t fit this time 🤷‍♂️
Some #Alts like $SOL did exactly what I expected (made a new ATH), but that’s because coins like #Solana had a very strong narrative and they moved up with #BTC in sync. The rest are just waiting for a #BTC.D Meltdown and a steady #OTHERSBTC uptrend 📈