The stock market is reacting positively in anticipation of an extended Fed rate hike pause at the September 16 meeting. Especially given that the three previous S&P 500 pullbacks since summer 2023 were completely bought up, yielding an average return of 19%.
30-year statistics show that the S&P 500 hit a new high after passing the peak in 13 out of 17 cases over the following 6 months. CFRA analysts have already raised their 12-month target for the index to 8,650 (+11%).
💸 This is happening because the AI sector, as the main driver of stock growth, continues to deliver strong earnings reports. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz situation is having less and less impact on global markets; the only remaining risk factor in the Middle East right now is a full-scale regional war.
We previously discussed the lack of liquidity in the markets, which is restraining stock growth and completely preventing Bitcoin from turning around. A potential future rise in the S&P 500 will support BTC, but it won't trigger a full bull market on its own. For that, we need either a major positive catalyst, like real and lasting peace in Iran, the passage of the Clarity Act, a new major buyer like Saylor, or perhaps all of the above.
Without these factors, the crypto market is left waiting for an influx of liquidity, which could nevertheless begin before the end of the year.
Therefore, the current situation for BTC looks as follows:
🔴 We cannot confirm that the bottom is in
🔴 We cannot promise an imminent "to the moon"
🟢 We cannot advise staying out of the market, as the current price is definitely a good entry point for building spot positions for growth in 2027–2029