The video shows that the indicator worked perfectly in previous cycles and hasn't yet given a signal that the bottom has been reached.
Analytics platforms hide Realized Losses and Realized Profits behind a paid subscription, so for you, we created a new similar indicator for TradingView (see screenshot), which you can add in 5 minutes and use completely free 🏀
How to add the indicator:
1. Log into your TradingView account, open the BTC/USD candlestick chart, select the 1W timeframe, and switch to a logarithmic scale.
2. In the bottom right corner, open the menu (the circle icon with dots) and select "Pine Editor".
3. A code window will open; clear the default template and paste the code below:
//@version=5 indicator("BTC Realized P/L Exact Video [Final]", shorttitle="RPL Video Final", overlay=true) //
==========================================
// 1. DEFAULT SETTINGS
// ==========================================
ema_len = input.int(59, "EMA Smoothing Length (weeks)", minval=1)
spread_mult = input.float(44.0, "Line Spread (Separate yellow/blue)", minval=1.0)
level_shift = input.float(0.18, "Line Level Below Price (18% of BTC)", minval=0.05, maxval=0.5)
// ==========================================
// 2. DATA AND EMA SMOOTHING
// ==========================================
sopr_raw = request.security("GLASSNODE:BTC_SOPR", "W", close)
sopr_smooth = ta.ema(sopr_raw, ema_len)
// Baseline below candles (18% of BTC price)
base_line = ta.sma(close, 80) * level_shift
// ==========================================
// 3. LINE SPREAD CALCULATION
// ==========================================
dev = (sopr_smooth - 1.0) * spread_mult
profit_line = base_line * math.exp(dev)
loss_line = base_line * math.exp(-dev)
// ==========================================
// 4. LINE PLOTTING
// ==========================================
p_prof = plot(profit_line, "Realized Profit (Yellow)", color=#FFC107, linewidth=2)
p_loss = plot(loss_line, "Realized Loss (Blue)", color=#2196F3, linewidth=2)
// ==========================================
// 5. CAPITULATION ZONES AND BUY SIGNAL
// ==========================================
is_capitulation = loss_line > profit_line
// Red background and fill between lines
bgcolor(is_capitulation ? color.new(#FF5252, 85) : na, title="Bottom Zone")
fill(p_loss, p_prof, color = is_capitulation ? color.new(#FF5252, 60) : na, title="Gap Fill")
// Buy signal triangle below candles at the crossover moment
signal_buy = ta.crossover(loss_line, profit_line)
plotshape(signal_buy, title="Buy Signal", style=shape.triangleup, location=location.belowbar, color=#FF5252, size=size.normal)
4. Click "Save" and "Add to chart" at the top of the editor.
No indicator provides a 100% guarantee, but this one has worked flawlessly through all previous cycles.
Save this indicator for yourself and share it with your friends 👍