One of the questions, regarding the Russian 🇷🇺 campaign against Europe :

— In recent months, there’s been growing concern that Vladimir Putin could turn his attention to Europe if the war in Ukraine remains deadlocked. The issue came into sharper focus after CIA Director John Ratcliffe reportedly visited Moscow to warn Russia against attacking European countries. How serious is the threat to Europe? Are you seeing Russian forces building up along Europe’s borders?

– No, they’re not amassing troops on Europe’s borders, and I don’t see Russia launching a ground invasion of any European country in the next few months. If you look at where the Russian army is right now, where its military assets are and where its logistics are concentrated, it’s all in Ukraine or around Ukraine.

If they tried anything in Estonia, Latvia or another country, they would risk being flanked or attacked in Kaliningrad, and they couldn’t defend against that with nuclear deterrence alone. I don’t think that’s a very good idea, and I don’t think the Russian military command is that crazy. That said, we know from the past that they’ve already launched some very audacious invasions, including the invasion of Ukraine with fewer than 200,000 troops.

Yet, I don’t see a ground invasion of a European country happening in the near future.

However, I do think they will carry out sabotage operations targeting the defense industry and energy infrastructure, because Europe is facing some challenges at the moment. In France, for example, there have been protests over fuel prices, mainly because of the situation in the Middle East, but also partly because of the war in Ukraine.

For Russia, this is a good opportunity to weaken support for Ukraine, especially financial support. In France, for example, there’s a debate about whether the country should continue providing Ukraine with so much financial assistance, particularly with elections coming up in April next year.

The difficulty is that Russia isn’t attacking Europe directly. Instead, it is applying pressure in less overt ways, including through sabotage. There are also repeated drone incursions: drones cross into the airspace of the Baltic states and Moldova on a near-daily basis, and occasionally into that of Romania and Poland.