1/3 This remained largely undercover, but Russia 🇷🇺 is trying to isolate Ukraine 🇺🇦 from Romania 🇷🇴 and the southern part of Odessa oblast. Russia is targeting border outposts, gas stations, bridges and ports in this "southern Bessarabia" region.

In 2022, there were already scenarios of how Russia would use this region to attack Odessa from the south. It never happened because Russian forces were defeated in Mykolaiv and their navy couldn't do anything.

This year, I did some uchronic scenarios of how Russia would use Transnistria to invade southern Bessarabia, support an offensive coming from the east or a Ukrainian operation in Transnitria. Today, I believe none of them (apart the UA one ?) are possible.

Today, only two bridges are connecting Odessa with the southern part of the oblast or with Romania/Moldova.

🔹Mayaki bridge (one bridge, part of the road goes through Moldova) + 2 new bridges
🔹Zatoka road/rail bridge, heavily targeted by drones, missiles, KABs...