Goldman Sachs models a potential US diesel export ban.

Initially US diesel drops ~$0.25/gal per week of ban.

But longer it lasts, worse it gets.

Diesel/gasoline are co-produced, so cutting diesel output pushes gasoline UP by ~$0.30/gal once storage fills.

Meanwhile European wholesale diesel rises ~$3/bbl per week (~2%), partially offset by SPR releases.

After the ban lifts, global prices would still be higher than without it due to lost US refinery output.

Goldman recommends hedging via long European gasoline positions.