🇨🇺 🌏Cuba at a Crossroads: Energy Crisis, Economic Opening, and Diplomatic Tensions

Specially for the TG channel the «Center for International Interaction and Cooperation», Ekaterina Plotnikova, expert of our center about the events in Cuba:

The Energy Crisis Deepens
Over the past 48 hours, Cuba experienced a total collapse of its national power grid, leaving 10 million people in the dark. While officials have since reconnected much of the grid — including Havana and regions from Pinar del Río to Holguín — the underlying issues remain dire. The Antonio Guiteras plant, a linchpin of the system, is back online, but electricity generation is still far below demand. Most Cubans were already facing up to 16 hours of daily blackouts even before this collapse.

The cause is a severe fuel shortage. Since the US ramped up pressure by cutting off oil supplies from Venezuela and threatening tariffs on other suppliers, Cuba has received only two small oil vessels this year. The fuel shortage is so severe that it has crippled essential social services: hospital backup generators, starved of fuel, have ceased operations, forcing medical staff to suspend critical procedures and endangering the lives of patients who rely on life-support equipment. The energy collapse is now disrupting international air travel, prompting airlines to postpone flights to the island. This uncertainty deals a looming blow to Cuba's vital tourism sector.

A Historic Economic Pivot
In the midst of this crisis, Havana has announced a significant policy shift: for the first time, Cubans living abroad will be allowed to invest in and own businesses on the island. This move targets the Cuban diaspora, which has seen over a million people emigrate in recent years. The government is specifically courting investment in agriculture and permitting the establishment of investment banks.

While experts call the move "pragmatic", it comes under "maximum pressure" from Washington and may be a bid to unlock new capital flows. However, it remains unclear if this will be enough to offset the broader economic freefall.

The Geopolitical Layer
These events are unfolding against a backdrop of tense negotiations between Cuba and the United States. While reports suggest the US has called for leadership changes in Havana, Cuba's leadership has publicly vowed "unbreakable resistance" against any external imposition. Crucially, Cuban officials state they are willing to negotiate a wide range of issues but draw a red line at discussing their internal political system.

A Fragile Path Forward
With energy instability now the norm and diplomatic talks ongoing, the island is walking a tightrope between external pressure and internal survival. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether negotiations can yield any relief for the Cuban people.