🇧🇷 Brazil heads to a presidential runoff

Yesterday, October 4, Brazil held general elections. We have prepared a short analysis of the main results, the new balance of forces in Congress, and what to watch ahead of the presidential runoff.

Brazil held general elections on October 4. Voters simultaneously elected the president, members of the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, as well as state governors and members of state legislatures. The main outcome was the unexpected first-round lead of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.

After the ballots were counted, Flávio Bolsonaro received 47% of the vote, while incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured 45%. The gap between the two candidates was around 2.2 million votes. The runoff will take place on October 25.

The result came as a surprise. Most pre-election polls had given Lula a narrow lead. Bolsonaro, however, finished just three percentage points short of winning the election outright in the first round.

Another important outcome was the significant strengthening of right-wing forces in both chambers of Brazil’s Congress. The Liberal Party (PL) secured the largest bloc in the Chamber of Deputies, winning 121 of 513 seats — 24 more than in the 2022 elections. The federation led by Lula’s Workers’ Party won 82 seats. Following the Senate elections, the Liberal Party is also set to become the largest group in the upper chamber, holding 28 of 81 Senate seats.

According to Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE), voting proceeded normally, with no major problems capable of affecting the conduct of the election. 62 representatives from 26 countries observed various stages of the voting process and the verification of electronic voting machines.

The main question now is whether Lula can mobilize enough additional support ahead of October 25 to win the presidency for a fourth time, or whether Flávio Bolsonaro will become Brazil’s next president.

✍️ Author: Ivan Bubnov, Expert at the Center for International Interaction and Cooperation