The official launch of the US military operation against Iran on February 28 was dominated by rhetoric about nuclear disarmament. However, as analysis shows, economic considerations and regional influence play a far more relevant role.
🌏 Our center's expert, Dmitry Kukoyev, and independent expert and Iranian citizen Benjamin Valami, provided a detailed article on how long the Iranian economy will survive and what influence the US has on these processes.
The articles examine how Khamenei's death changed the power structure in Tehran, why the IRGC now controls everything, and what will happen to commodity prices in the coming weeks.
Overall, the current conflict, and Iran’s response in the form of strikes on neighboring countries, is leading to a significant reduction in the number of countries in the region willing to tolerate risk and sanctions evasion through which Iran had operated its exports. At the same time, it is unlikely that the current buyers of Iranian oil and mineral raw materials will refuse to continue deals altogether, but it is fair to say with confidence that transport premiums and risk discounts will gradually rise over the course of the conflict, leading to a contraction of the Iranian economy.
🔗 You can read the completed article at this link https://telegra.ph/The-Iranian-Scenario-An-Analysis-of-Diplomatic-Failure-and-the-New-Balance-of-Power-in-the-Middle-East-03-10
Authors: Independent expert and Iranian citizen Benjamin Valami and CIIC expert Dmitry Kukoyev