🇮🇷⚔️🚢 Shipping in the Gulf remains dangerous. Confirmed ship strikes in Iran-adjacent waterways remain highly elevated: the 7-day total stands at 8 confirmed hits on October 9th, down from a peak of 11 but higher than any other week except the war’s opening days.

Some caveats apply: UKMTO relies on voluntary reporting and often publishes warnings days late, so recent strikes (and reported/unreported turn-backs) are likely undercounted. A confirmed hit also doesn’t necessarily disable or sink a vessel, let alone “mission-kill” it

Oil flows are down significantly already: Rory Johnston of the excellent Commodity Context estimates 7-day average Hormuz oil flows have fallen to 12–13 MMbpd over the past two weeks, from a peak of 16.2 MMbpd on September 24.

It remains an open question how long shippers and insurers can sustain this pace of attrition. The tanker fleet is large, and mariners are willing to undertake dangers if sufficiently compensated for the risk.

Still, I estimate that somewhere between 5-15% of tanker transits in the SoH are suffering strikes (yes, the error bands are large). Furthermore, Iran appears to be widening its campaign beyond the Strait. All in all, dangerous time for shipping oil.

🔗 Joe Webster