🇮🇷💰🛢 Kpler Suspects Gulf Producers Are Paying Iran for Safe Passage

Middle East crude exports have rebounded toward pre-war levels, but Brent remains near $100 as costly rerouting, tanker shortages, STS transfers and military escorts keep delivered oil expensive.

Analysts suspect Iran may be quietly collecting tolls for safe passage through Hormuz, potentially taking 10%–20% of some cargoes, although the claims remain unverified.

Any Iranian transit fees would face major legal and geopolitical challenges, while the Gulf’s vessel-intensive shuttle system continues to drive freight rates higher and tighten global tanker availability.

Kpler estimates Middle East crude and condensate exports averaged roughly 16.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in September and exceeded the pre-war average of 18 million bpd on several days during the final week of the month. That recovery has done surprisingly little to bring oil prices back down, as we noted earlier this week. Producers are moving more crude through alternative pipelines and ports, while tankers moving through Hormuz increasingly rely on U.S. military escorts and vessel-intensive chains of ship-to-ship (STS) transfers. Brent crude is still trading around $100 per barrel, nearly $30 per barrel above its pre-war level. Iran could be quietly collecting tolls from ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, with exporters passing on these costs to consumers. According to Michelle Brohard, head of policy and geopolitical risk at Kpler, certain Gulf nations could have quietly struck deals with Iran to keep their oil flowing on fears that they cannot rely indefinitely on Washington to keep Tehran at bay.

“I suspect there is a toll that’s being paid, which is giving these ships safe passage,” Brohard said in an interview with energy analyst Rory Johnston last week. “I also suspect that these countries know that this is unsustainable from a perspective of [the] US escorting [ships], and also unsustainable from them paying Iran 10 percent of their cargo, or 20 percent of their cargo. So you’re starting to see like what I would call like a race to get out as much as possible, as quickly as possible before the war restarts,” she added.

🔗 https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Kpler-Suspects-Gulf-Producers-Are-Paying-Iran-for-Safe-Passage.html