A new round of Russian-Azeri hostilities

Russian court ruled to deport the head of the Azeri diaspora [pic. 1]. In Russia, diasporas often function as ethnic lobby groups, think AIPAC but more informal.

In turn, Azerbaijan has declared three Russian citizens: two political consultants and one journalist [pic. 2] internationally wanted because... they publicly criticized Azerbaijan, and that's "incitement to terrorism". One of them is Alexey Chadaev, whose Telegram blog I sometimes enjoy reading.

In the previous round that took place a year ago, Russia arrested several dozen Azerbaijani suspects [pic. 3] on cold-case murder charges. Many of them had been operating in Russia's criminal underworld for decades. Two of the detained, both mafia members, died in custody: one of heart failure, while the circumstances of the other's death remain unknown. Azerbaijan claimed that both had been beaten while in custody.

In response, Azerbaijan detained and arrested Russian journalists from the Sputnik agency and several Russian IT "relocants" [pic. 4] residing in Baku. They were beaten and charged with drug trafficking and other half-baked charges.

Before all of that came the AZAL plane disaster. And in 2020, Azerbaijan shot down a Russian helicopter, killing both pilots.

My guess is this whole thing will keep snowballing until it stops a few steps short of actual war. Why? A few concentrated missile strikes could effectively shut down Azerbaijan's energy exports, but Russia would also have to account for the risk of drawing Turkey, Azerbaijan's closest ally, into an open confrontation. So this "cold war" will most likely play out as a string of deportations, arrests, and media bickering.

Yet another stage of a slow, post-Soviet Imperial unraveling.