Ticker: $GOLD
Address:
EQAC-SkKhrL7N0uUxQj-2XyifrZpu5urIl1EVwaLPrO_t2Ww$GOLD / $XAU - into monday
gold has plenty of reasons to rally. that’s exactly why i’m watching what happens if it can’t
middle east tensions, haven demand, weak payrolls. the bullish story is easy to tell. yet gold heads into monday below its daily ema20 and ema50, with lower highs since august. buyers have a narrative. now they need to reclaim the chart
4191–4262 is where that story gets tested. a recovery into this zone would look encouraging, but rejection would leave the broader correction intact. my base case is a bounce that meets sellers here, with room to change that view if buyers hold the reclaim
below, friday’s 4130.75 low is the first line to watch. a 4h close underneath and a failed reclaim would expose 4116.60 and the 4100–4120 pocket. lose that area too, and 4055–4080 comes into focus, with 4028 and june’s 3948 low further down the map
coinglass shows modeled liquidation clusters on both sides, so the first move after reopening could be a sweep. i care more about what price holds afterward than which side gets tagged first
a daily close above 4262 followed by a successful retest would weaken the bearish case and open the next tests at 4300–4335, then 4405. until then, a green candle is a recovery attempt, not proof that the correction is over
the underlying market is closed for the weekend. monday brings the real test: fresh headlines, the dollar, yields and ism services
if gold gets bullish headlines and still cannot reclaim resistance, that failure would tell me more than the headlines themselves
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