AI-related companies have issued roughly $140 billion of investment-grade bonds this year, almost half of all IG issuance, and absorbed around $220 billion of venture funding. That concentration is now visible in credit markets: Nvidia's 5-year CDS prints near 38bps, just inside the 40bps on US Treasuries.

When a single company starts pricing tighter than the sovereign that backs the currency it borrows in, the market is making a statement about where it believes the safest cash flows now sit.

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