A week ago the market gave a US-Iran deal better than 75% odds. Today it is 27%, and the probability of the Strait of Hormuz reopening normally has fallen to 22%.

US crude jumped more than 8% to $94 as Iran ended negotiations and vowed to block the strait, the channel that carries roughly a fifth of global seaborne crude. Trump countered that prices will fall "like a rock." Both views cannot hold, and the spread between them is where the next move lives.

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