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The Art of Prediction The Art of Prediction @astreidesanalytics · 1.94K subscribers
Post #14257 37
Nix Astreides ⚡New Europe calculated that United Russia's actual result, without falsifications, would have been around 34%. The calculation used a method developed by physicist Sergei Shpilkin: the share of actual votes was calculated based on the distribution of votes…
Also remember this share of UR is at average turnout around 45%.
There is still a problem that many opposing people who would vote for opposing parties still don’t go to vote.
It means that probably at 100% turnout, without falsifications the actual support for UR would be 20-25%, only a quarter of population.
It also means that Apple party probably would win the elections if not outlawed with 30% share under 100% turnout.
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