A first overview of the main developments the past three days by internationalist anarchists in Syria

📌 The offensive of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) made a breakthrough in the first days toward east (Aleppo) and south (Hama) and slowed down on December 2nd.

📌 Assad regime forces appear to have recaptured the city of Hama and halted the advance of HTS towards Homs city. Russian air forces are carrying out an extensive bombing campaign, targeting HTS units but also civilian and military infrastructure in Idlib, Aleppo, and along the route of the HTS advance. There are reports of both civilian and combatant casualties. Jets belonging to the Assad regime have also carried out airstrikes, but on a smaller scale. In Aleppo, in the Kurdish district of Sheikh Maqsood, the residents have prepared for self-defense.

📌 North of Aleppo, Şehba canton is been occupied by the [Turkey-backed] Syrian National Army (SNA). Thousands of people who have lived in refugee camps since the Turkish invasion of Afrin in 2018 are now being evacuated. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are organizing a humanitarian corridor to enable people to exit Aleppo and Şehba. No major clashes are reported between the SDF and SNA for now.

📌 In some other regions of the Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (DAANES), artillery shelling and drone activity occurred, but no more than usual.

📌 There are reports of the Iranian-backed militia Hashd Ash-Shaabi moving into Syrian territory in the Deir-Ez-Zor region in large numbers. In the same region, the SDF and the Deir-Ez-Zor military council are making moves to take some towns and villages under control.

📌 The forces of the Islamic State that remain in the desert of central Syria have not been seen to make any major moves, but it is expected they will use the situation to the best of their ability.

📢 The SDF has called for a mass mobilization, asking for young people to join SDF and to be ready to repel the upcoming attacks on the liberated territory. It is a common expectation that the escalation will intensify and Turkish-backed factions will use the opportunity to attack the western regions of DAANES, such as Minbij.

💬 At first, there were rumors about an attempted coup in Damascus; if such an attempt did happen, it seems to have quickly failed.
Egypt, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, and Iran have expressed support for Assad regime.

🔸 The Democratic Autunomous Adminsitration of North and East Syria, also known as Rojava, is in the middle of the new turmoil. The number of refugees arriving in the western cantons, counted together with the number of people who have been arriving from Lebanon over the past few months, could easily exceed 200,000 in the coming weeks.

🔺 In the first days of the HTS offensive and the SNA push against Şehba, as well as the siege of Sheikh Maqsood, it is clear that Assad regime is in very difficult situation; it seems possible that it will collapse. However, any potential rule by HTS will not be stable and will not be able to resolve the pressing problems that the dictatorship of Bashar Al-Assad created and exacerbated for Syria. Nevertheless, the fall of Assad might open a window of possibility for change in the region, if Syrians—both those who remain in the country and those who will decide to come back after exile—manage to revive the original ideas of the Syrian revolution.

Major global powers like Turkey, the United States, and Israel will benefit from the HTS offensive. HTS fits all of their needs as a force that is opposed to Iran, Assad, and Russia. Given the chance to take up state-making if they win, following the Taliban model, it is possible that main actors in HTS will exercise their influence in a possible future new government. It is even possible that the aforementioned states might support HTS in taking power, seeing as they are not interested in the Syrian peoples independently deciding for themselves.