$BNC thesis
Positioned in $BNC on tradfi over the last week to express bullish view on $BNB
Generally think we are at a turning point in the market where there's a lot of upside. With UST yields making higher highs and CL continuing to push above $100 the market is pushing Bessent for a massive QE booster at some point. Every intervention both in the bond market and in Iran is ignored by the market. We're not at point of no return where even a hike wouldn't materially change the economy as LGW put it: "Impact of going from 3.5 -> 3.75 is marginal compared to 0 -> 0.25. This is not a new hiking cycle".
The market has been sniffing that position out, CPI last week has shown the market's hand, despite an initial selloff we quickly reversed before the range sellers stepped in. Akin to the fake ETF candle where we fakeout but followed through over the following week.
View is that clarity act which odds spike this morning is largely benefiting offshore brokerages and DATs.
Why BNB?
- RWA activity and volume is strong and has been growing, consistently 50% mkt share
- memecoin/onchain ecosystem is supported and getting a lot of volume
- US entry seems very likely
- upcoming IPO which I had confirmed last year multiple times (
https://t.me/methinhaler/19)
- price has NEVER taken out previous year lows, only up 25%
Why BNC?
- 45% discount to spot, shrinking daily
- management dispute not fully over, CZ and Bn still supporting
- Bn listed BNC bStock contract
- DAT outperformance over the last 3 months
- large volumes due to BNC4 meme craze last week
Date BNC px mNAV Discount
2026-06-15 2.05 0.28x 72%
2026-06-23 2.10 0.30x 70%
2026-06-27 3.05 0.45x 55%
2026-07-22 3.02 0.42x 58%
2026-08-08 2.32 0.31x 69%
2026-08-22 3.15 0.39x 61%
2026-09-03 2.83 0.33x 67%
2026-09-10 5.25 0.57x 43%
2026-09-11 4.97 0.55x 45%
Also hold
- GEMINI (trad)
- LIT
- HYPE
- RH + Base memecoins
