Late cycle sign

An influx of money bidding on ICOs. One latecycle behavior is the intense focus and investment in new tokens, similar to 2018 and, in a different form, VC funding in 2021.

ICOs were also wild in 2021; I recall my $500 IMX allocation turning into $20k just 40 days after the ICO, or my Biconomy allocation, where $500 became $80k (although the token was locked).

These days, we see the same behavior with Limitless getting 110x oversubscribed bids and Yieldbase over 100x for an ICO. Honestly, their terms aren’t great—yes, they’re cheap, but not that cheap. You can buy other prediction market projects on Base, like Predi, at a $10M FDV. For me This signals late-cycle ICO behavior.

I tried bidding on YB and Limitless but have little confidence in getting a good allocation, so it’s not worth tying up capital.

The only exciting opportunities right now are short- to mid-term plays on liquid tokens for a solid 2-3x upside, taking profits strictly, as we’ve seen what happened with XPL, Apex, and others. (I see Aster as a trade due to CZ’s focus on BSC.)