🛢 Brent Curve and EIA Outlook

November Brent expires Today. On 29 September at 12:30 UTC, November traded at $103.91 and December at $96.41. A contract-switching service can therefore show a $7.50 lower price without the underlying becoming cheaper.

The EIA's 2027 outlook puts Brent at an average of $73.74, assuming most Gulf production and trade return to pre-conflict averages by the second quarter. Futures sit $9.67 to $11.84 higher in the cited calendar comparisons, with the gap widening to about $16 to $17 by the fourth quarter. Risk compensation means this gap alone does not show that futures traders expect the EIA to be wrong.

The view here is that Brent will stay above the EIA's 2027 path. The cited calls include a 70% chance that the EIA raises its 2027 average, a 95% chance that it cuts its end-October US gas storage forecast below 3,969 billion cubic feet, and an 18% chance of official confirmation of a US-Iran arrangement that reopens Hormuz before 3 November. The probabilities are judgments, not calibrated model results.

✔️ @venture