U.S. Treasury Sell-Off Alarm Intensifies: Term Premium Hits 10-Year High, Fiscal and AI-Related Debt Issuance Act as Drivers

U.S. long-term Treasury yields continue to rise, shifting market focus from the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike path to term premiums. The New York Fed’s model shows that the term premium on 10-year U.S. Treasuries has risen by a cumulative 40 basis points since mid-September to around 0.98%, hitting its highest level since 2014; over the same period, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries has increased by roughly 30 basis points. Another model incorporating economists’ interest rate forecast

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