Tinlake Daily - Markets, Investments, Crypto

X (Twitter) has launched stock and crypto “trading” through Cashtags.
When you click on a ticker, a price chart, related posts, and a Trade button appear. The button redirects users to a broker or crypto exchange to complete the transaction.
At launch, X’s partners include Interactive Brokers, Moomoo, Gemini, Kraken, and Coinbase.
The feature is currently available only in the United States.

⚡️ Key events calendar for this week:
Monday, September 14:
Nothing important
Tuesday, September 15:
🇺🇸 USA - Senate vote on the CLARITY Act is expected )
Wednesday, September 16:
🔥 USA - Fed interest rate decision - 21:00
🔥 USA - Conference with Kevin Warsh - 21:30
Thursday, September 17:
🇺🇸 USA - SEC roundtable on the transition of the stock market to 24/7 trading
🇺🇸 USA - Initial Jobless Claims - 15:30
🇺🇸 USA - Fed Balance Sheet - 23:30
Friday, September 18:
🇯🇵 Japan - BOJ interest rate decision - 06:00

🚨 Trezor phishing emails were sent from an official domain
Trezor warned users about a phishing attack following a breach of a third-party email provider.
The main issue is that the fraudulent emails were sent from Trezor’s official domain and had valid signatures, making them almost indistinguishable from legitimate emails.
The emails, with the subject line “Critical Security Alert: STM32 Entropy Vulnerability,” warned users about an alleged critical vulnerability and instructed them to update their hardware wallet by clicking a link.
Trezor confirmed that the emails were phishing attempts, disabled the compromised domain, and launched an investigation.
This is already the second major incident involving Trezor recently. In August, a breach of its logistics partner ShipMonk resulted in the leak of customers’ personal data. Initially, around 13,700 affected customers were reported, but it was later revealed that another 67,000 customers in the US were also affected.

🐻 CryptoQuant analysts are warning about the risk of a Bitcoin correction in the near term.

The Bitcoin Capital & Flow Regime Index has remained at its maximum level for 6 consecutive days. In recent months, similar readings of the index have been followed by further declines in BTC.

✅ BTC is holding around $77K. The guys at CryptoQuant are warning of a strong correction because the entire recent rally was driven by a short squeeze, while there are very few real buyers in the market.

Bank of America believes risky assets will rise if 30-year Treasury yields fall below 5%. But if Scott Bessent messes things up, the markets could get hit hard 😠

Friday’s events:

🔸 CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said he will secure regulation regardless of whether the Clarity Act is passed

🔸 Anthropic is set to beat SpaceX’s $86.2B IPO record. Potential target — $100B 💸

🔸 Strategy is back in profit on its BTC holdings — average purchase price: $75,385. Shares are up 30% in 5 days

🔸 Citi maintains a bullish outlook on the stock market and recommends buying the dip ahead of the fall congressional elections

🔸 UBS Global Wealth Management raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 8,100

🔸 Bernstein maintains its “Outperform” rating on SpaceX with a $248 target

🔸 JPMorgan sees increasing risks of a market downturn in late summer or early fall — the AI trade is starting to resemble the dot-com bubble 🙈

😭5 years of crypto pain. Terrifying numbers, but those who understand how crypto market cycles work know that the biggest opportunities for making money are opening up right now.

‼️ Iran has issued the US a 3–4 week ultimatum: lift the naval blockade, unfreeze $120 billion in assets, remove all sanctions, pay $300 billion in reparations, and recognize Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz with paid passage. Trump traditionally declared the strait open and Iran defeated, while Donald Trump’s approval rating plunged to 33%.

🦸 The US Treasury is preparing to put the GENIUS Act into effect starting January 18, 2027: stablecoin issuers will have to obtain a license and comply with US sanctions. This is still a preliminary plan, and a 60-day public comment period has begun.

💸 Anthropic’s revenue since the beginning of the year has reached $65 billion — 7x compared with 2025. Investors are expecting an IPO this fall at a $2 trillion valuation, which could break Musk and SpaceX’s record.

☢️🇺🇸 The US is discussing the possibility of using nuclear weapons against Iran.

Former House Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene claims that the use of nuclear weapons against Iran is being discussed during strategic meetings.

There has been no official confirmation of this information from the White House or the Pentagon.

Other key developments as of now:

➤ The US and Iran failed to reach an agreement — the 60-day negotiation period expired without a final deal. Tehran says there has been “absolutely no progress” on returning to previous agreements.

➤ Donald Trump said he intends to declare the Strait of Hormuz US territory. Iran responded by saying that only Tehran decides whether the strait is opened or closed.

➤ Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has virtually come to a standstill. Only 5 vessels passed through the strait on Saturday, and none on Sunday.

➤ The UAE accused Iran of another attack on a tanker linked to ADNOC.

➤ Iran is negotiating with Oman over new shipping routes around the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran is prepared to fully reopen the strait only after the US meets its demands.

🎉Tether’s first full reserve audit — almost 9 years in the making.
Tether’s financial audit was conducted by KPMG, one of the prestigious “Big Four” accounting firms.
For context: Tether has been promising a full audit since at least 2017. Before this, the company only published regular reserve attestations by BDO — a narrower verification of reserves at a specific date, rather than a full audit of the company’s financial statements.

What KPMG’s audit found:
➟ Tether’s 2025 financial statements received an unqualified opinion — effectively a “clean” audit.
➟ Reserves exceed liabilities by approximately $6.814 billion.
➟ KPMG examined assets, liabilities, revenue, expenses, cash flows, documents, and counterparties.
➟ Tether’s gold bars were physically counted and verified by auditors — everything checked out.
Tether has faced years of criticism over the lack of a full independent audit of its reserves and financial statements. The company has now addressed this issue through an audit by one of the world’s most prominent accounting firms — putting to rest conspiracy theories about “holes” in the reserves of the largest stablecoin issuer.

✅ The S&P 500 rose above 7,800 points for the first time, as investors were encouraged by U.S. producer inflation (PPI) data — 4.7% in July versus the 4.9% forecast 🧪
BTC is traditionally unresponsive: there simply isn’t enough liquidity in the markets to pump all risk assets at once.
Thursday’s events:

🔸 The U.S. recorded a record $432 billion budget deficit in July, driven by accelerated federal spending.

🔸 In July, Russia’s daily oil production was nearly 1 million barrels below its OPEC+ quota 😠

🔸 Goldman Sachs is acquiring crypto ETF operator NEOS for $2.25 billion. NEOS has approximately $30 billion in assets under management.

🔸 Crypto exchange Deribit, a Coinbase subsidiary, received a broker-dealer license in Dubai.

🔸 SanDisk +13% after presenting a new financial model optimized for the AI boom.

🔸 Analytics service Telemetrio recorded a rise in active Telegram bot users in the crypto and Web3 sector to 401.4 million per month, up 189% quarter-over-quarter 👍

BitMart exchange is insolvent ☠️

You’ve been messaging us about withdrawal issues on BitMart, and at this point, it’s fair to say the potential scam scandal is gaining momentum.

Timeline:

⏺️ July 13: BitMart offers users the option to lock their assets for 6 months, but this fails to attract enough liquidity.

🔴 July 26: The exchange announces that it will stop accepting new registrations and shut down the platform on August 27.

⏺️ July 27: Analysts report unusually low withdrawals from the platform: 58 accounts withdrew just $805K over 24 hours.

⏺️ After that, withdrawals effectively come to a halt, and we start receiving complaints from our subscribers.

⏺️ August 8: BitMart CEO denies rumors of an exit scam, explaining the withdrawal freeze as an audit and reconciliation of balances.

🔴 August 10: The CEO of OpenGradient accuses BitMart of insolvency, claiming the company is unable to withdraw its market maker’s funds from the exchange.

Important: Before the shutdown announcement, BitMart’s assets were estimated at just $102 million. So this is not a story about a market-wide collapse comparable to FTX in 2022, which had around $9 billion in liabilities at the time of its collapse.

BitMart currently has around $71 million in assets left, but $41.5 million is held in illiquid shitcoins that cannot be quickly sold to make proper payouts to users.
Based on the exchange’s balance sheet, BitMart appears to have converted some user assets into shitcoins at its own discretion. But the altseason never happened, and the exchange was forced to shut down urgently.

💬 A reminder of the main rules for crypto traders:

🟢 Keep only the funds you need for trading on an exchange; store your investments in your own wallet.
🟢 Never keep your entire balance on a single exchange — otherwise, you could end up like BitMart.

✊ Trump has declared the Strait of Hormuz open under the control of the U.S. Navy and demanded compensation from Iran for the military personnel and civilians killed. The peace deal appears to have completely stalled, and the next step will likely be a resumption of hostilities. Brent crude is heading toward $90.

💸 Trump Media increased its cryptocurrency holdings by $293 million to 14,139 BTC. To finance this, the company actively sold BTC ETFs during Q2. Bitcoin itself remains under selling pressure below $64K, while the spring is fully compressed on the 1D timeframe — be prepared for volatility.

💸 Nvidia is tightening the money loop. The company is preparing to announce $500 billion in financing for AI projects, backed by Apollo, Blackstone, BlackRock, and Goldman Sachs. The money itself will be used to purchase Nvidia chips.

🐻‍❄️ Yesterday, bear investor Michael Burry was disappointed with Berkshire Hathaway as the stock hit a new all-time high. Today, Burry predicted Palantir could fall to $1.

⚠️ US-Iran talks have reached a deadlock: the market estimates only a 30% probability of a deal being reached by the end of August. Interestingly, Trump is making concessions and is willing to discuss opening the Strait of Hormuz without a nuclear deal, while Iran is increasing pressure and demanding the withdrawal of US troops, the unfreezing of assets, and reparations.

🤑 Spot BTC ETFs attracted $854 million last week — the best result since April. This is helping keep the price above $65K, but traders are pointing to a sharp decline in volatility, which in a bear market usually leads to a new price low.

💵 JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon sees the dollar losing its status as the world’s reserve currency within 25 years:
“If in 25 years we don’t have the strongest military and the strongest economy, then we won’t have the reserve currency either.”

🕊 The Iranian peace deal is disappearing from the radar. Iran denies negotiations with the US, while its agreement with Oman does not provide for the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, introduces a transit fee, and bans the passage of vessels linked to the US and Israel.

💥 On top of that, Yemen’s Houthis are attacking government forces, further escalating tensions in the Middle East.

❌ The Clarity Act has officially been postponed until the fall session of Congress. The chances of the bill being passed by the end of the year are now just 15%. BTC has dropped back to $64.3K.

🗽 Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is open to raising interest rates at the next meeting if inflation starts rising again. The next meeting is on September 16, with the probability of a rate hike currently at 54%.

🦠 Scientists have created the first viruses using AI. These viruses are reportedly completely safe for humans and animals. But that doesn’t mean that, hypothetically, “evil” scientists couldn’t use AI to design a new coron

🇮🇷 The Strait of Hormuz could be fully reopened as early as today.
Donald Trump claims that negotiations with Iran are currently underway at Tehran’s request, with support from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and other countries.
Latest updates:

➥ The location and official status of the talks are expected to be announced today or tomorrow. According to Trump, the negotiations should move quickly because both sides already understand the key terms of a potential agreement.

➥ The talks are divided into two stages. First, the U.S. is demanding the restoration of normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. After that, the parties will move on to discussing the complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program. Trump acknowledged that the second stage could take a considerable amount of time.

➥ Washington hopes to fully reopen the strait by August 4. Trump described the current dialogue as Tehran’s “last chance” to reach a deal.

➥ Until an agreement is signed, the U.S. will maintain its blockade. Trump called it a “steel wall” and said that nothing should enter or leave Iran until Tehran either agrees to a deal or capitulates.

➥ The U.S. president also urged American oil companies to lower oil and gasoline prices amid tensions surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.

❗️However, CBS News, citing U.S. officials, reports that no new negotiations with Iran are currently scheduled. This directly contradicts Trump’s claims that talks are already underway and that additional rounds will take place in the near future.

🇰🇪 #AVAX The Kenyan government is moving its national education records database to the Avalanche blockchain.

The Kenya National Examinations Council (KNEC) has already anchored more than 15,000,000 education records on the blockchain (dating back to 1989). The database is expected to grow to approximately 35,000,000 records.

Employers and educational institutions will be able to quickly verify the authenticity of diplomas, certificates, and other academic credentials. Nearly 1,000,000 graduates from the Class of 2025 have already received their certificates exclusively in digital format.

Strategy has sold BTC again. Last week, the company sold 1,637 BTC, reducing Saylor’s holdings to 842,138 BTC.

Saudi Arabia has assembled a coalition of 14 countries for an operation against the Yemeni Houthis. The stated goal is to reopen the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, though there are also rumors of a potential ground operation.

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait serves as an alternative maritime route, but the Houthis have been blocking it in support of Iran. As long as the strait remains operational, markets are not experiencing an acute energy shortage, and oil continues to trade below $100 despite the escalation involving Iran.

⚠️ The main risk right now is a ground operation. Iran could respond by targeting oil infrastructure across the region, potentially triggering a global energy shortage, a recession, and a collapse in financial markets.

And if Trump’s so-called “victorious war” against Iran spreads across the entire Middle East, would that already count as World War III—or not yet? 🇺🇸

💸 Strategy reported a net loss of $8.2 billion for the second quarter. In the same period a year earlier, the company posted a net profit of $10 billion.

According to the report, since the beginning of the year, the firm has sold approximately $218 million worth of Bitcoin to fund dividend payments on its preferred shares.

Strategy CEO Phong Le stated that the company reduced its convertible debt by 18% to $6.7 billion, while increasing its cash reserves by 12% to $2.4 billion.

Kevin Warsh sent the S&P 500 on a roller coaster ride:

🔴 -$770 billion ahead of the Fed meeting as markets feared an interest rate hike.
🟢 +$1 trillion after the Fed decided to keep rates unchanged.
🔴 -$1 trillion after the probability of a rate hike at the September meeting surged to 67%.
Warsh’s remarks were described as a “hawkish pause”: he once again avoided giving forward guidance but made it clear he is prepared to tighten monetary policy if inflation accelerates. This rhetoric, combined with the Fed’s lack of a long-term roadmap, pushed 30-year U.S. Treasury yields to 5.2% - their highest level since 2007.

💥 The U.S. resumed airstrikes on Iran, sending Brent crude back to $89.

🔶 Bitcoin is holding up better than the S&P 500, trading near $64K. The crypto market also received support from the SEC, which is reportedly ready to establish its own regulatory framework if Congress delays passing the CLARITY Act.
Earnings:

✅ Iran denied reports of negotiations with the U.S., while Yemen’s Houthis claim to have successfully attacked an oil terminal in Saudi Arabia. 💥
Oil prices remain largely unchanged, but stocks and cryptocurrencies have moved into the red.

Last highlights:

🔸 Apple has regained its position as the world’s most valuable company by market capitalization after NVIDIA shares dropped 5% during today’s sell-off. Investors are increasingly concerned about the company’s financial position due to its massive AI investments.

🔸 In China, GPU prices jumped 12-30% in a single day as NVIDIA and AMD shift production toward AI processors. Looks like the coming “chipflation” may soon spread to other markets. 🫡

🔸 Strategy sold $544.5 million worth of shares and added the proceeds to its cash reserve. The company also plans to repurchase STRC shares below their $100 par value, but only by selling MSTR shares and BTC.

🔸 The Japanese yen has fallen to a 40-year low against the U.S. dollar amid the Bank of Japan’s ongoing monetary tightening.

🔸 Morgan Stanley maintained its $300 per share valuation for SpaceX, even though the company’s shares hit a new low today, falling below $110.

🔸 China’s DeepSeek unexpectedly halted its second major funding round after the company had reportedly been valued at $71 billion.

🔸 Amazon has filed an application to deploy 5,105 satellites to build a direct-to-phone service competing with Starlink. Deployment is expected to begin in 2028.

🔸 On its first day of trading, shares of Chinese chipmaker CXMT surged 465%. 🔼

🔸 Storj Labs, the decentralized cloud storage project, has filed for bankruptcy as part of a voluntary financial restructuring process.