Threading on the Edge

Why $FLUID pumped +50% in the last hour?

• Wintermute bought $500k+ onchain
• MM Loan expiry date is close

So they're buying back the tokens they dumped earlier this year to pay off the loan at a discount...

(They got the tokens at $10 per $FLUID and now they’re buying them back for like ~$4 each.)

These market makers literally market-sell the tokens right after receiving them, then buy them back a year later at a BIG DISCOUNT to repay their loans, and call it a profitable MM operation.

WTF IS THIS BEHAVIOR?!?!

https://x.com/AmirOrmu/status/1992058007581012316

👻 Threading Daily — 21.11.2025 👻

🔖Macro
- Fed now more likely not to cut in December
- BLS officially cancels Oct jobs report
- Trump signs bill to release Epstein files
- French PM set to fail early budget test
- Nvidia shrugs off ‘AI bubble’, sees bumper demand
- Futures higher after Nvidia reignites AI trade
- AI, robotics will make money irrelevant: Elon
- OpenAI introduces group chats in ChatGPT

🔖Crypto News
- $1.96B liquidation in last 24h
- BTC mining stocks pump on Nvidia’s blowout Q3
- Punks floor drops to $90k, loan liquidations coming
- TNSR up 5x to $240m
- WLFI reallocates funds after security lapses
- Nillion blames MM sell-off for yesterday's $NIL crash
- Coinbase working on prediction market, stock trading
- Robinhood to make tokenisation permissionless
- Kraken confidentially files for US IPO
- Bitwise Spot XRP ETF to launch today
- Selig pressed on CFTC crypto oversight
- Vitalik urges response to quantum threat for ETH
- Congressman Timons repping Pudgy on X
- Jesse Pollak launches personal token $JESSE
- Snipers made $1.3M on Pollak’s creator coin
- MegaETH introduces USDC > USDm pre-deposit bridge

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- Ray Dalio On Bitcoin: "I Have a Small Percentage of Bitcoin I've Had forever, Like 1% of My Portfolio.”
- Aave’s Aggressive Move to Challenge TradFi — Four Pillars
- Wallet Accretion Era - Fat Wallets Are Eating Crypto — eli5

🔖Raises
- Kalshi $1B, Prediction Market < Sequoia, CapitalG, a16z, Paradigm...
- HelloTrade $4.6M, Web3 trading platform < Dragonfly, Mirana

🔖Early Projects
- @obexincubator, Bio: Obex has a $2.5B mandate to incubate institutional-grade stablecoin projects that bring innovative and diversified yield to the Sky Ecosystem. obex.xyz
- @sourccey, Bio: Your Personal Home Robot! Join our Discord: discord.gg/wcxDdcMXhM sourccey.com
- @polyoptions, Bio: Bringing the power of options to the Polyverse. polyoptions.com

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

1460% 涨幅之后：重新审视 ZEC 的价值基础

https://x.com/laaaaacieee/status/1991325687148675330

👻 Threading Daily — 20.11.2025 👻

🔖Macro
- Tech stocks resume slide on AI bubble fears
- Japan 40yr, and 30yr yield new ATH
- Japan 20yr yield highest since 1999
- Congress approves release of Epstein files
- Microsoft, Nvidia to invest in Anthropic
- Meta wins antitrust trial over Instagram & WhatsApp
- Elon returned to White House for dinner with MBS

🔖Crypto News
- BTC selloff likely over: StanChart
- STRK leads altcoins on ZK hype
- Brazil eyes taxing crypto for cross-border payments
- Korea plans 20-25% tax on crypto
- Malaysia loses $1b on power theft by miners
- Saudi real estate firm to tokenise Trump hotel
- $1b ETH DAT from Asian investors shelved
- Banks can hold crypto to pay gas fees: OCC
- Fidelity debuts SOL ETF
- Hyperliquid treasury merger vote delayed
- Kraken raises $800m at $20b valuation
- Pump’s ‘Mayhem Mode’ fails to boost launches
- Phantom announces desktop trading terminal
- MegaETH mainnet to be in December
- USDai to raise cap $250m
- Monad addresses Coinbase token sale slowdown

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- The State of Crypto Leverage Q3 2025 — Galaxy
- Credit-Based Lending Will Take Much Longer to Scale Than Most People Think — KellieQuigley2

🔖Raises
- Sphere (Series A) $21M, Native AI tax engine < a16z, Felicis, Y, 20VC
- Deblock (Series A) $30M, Digital currency institution < Speedinvest, Triton, Headline...
- Doppel (Series C) $70M, Detecting NFT Fraud < Bessemer, a16z, South Park, Script, 9Yards...
- 0xbow (Seed) $3.5M, DeFi privacy and regulatory compliance platform < Starbloom, Coinbase, BOOST, Status...

🔖Early Projects
- @ImperialPerps, Bio: Perps Launchpad imperial.space
- @raycashxyz, Bio: Everything you expect from a banking app — IBAN, cards, privacy. But rebuilt onchain with private digital dollars, so you always stay in control of your money.
- @brightside_gg, Bio: Welcome to the Brightside, trading perps makes sense here. Zero-fees, non-custodial, mobile-first.

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

I want to highlight why I’ve been increasingly bullish on @edgeX_exchange and why this Perp DEX is quickly becoming one of the most compelling challengers in the market.

Instead of staying concentrated in Asia (where they’re already dominant), edgeX is expanding globally into English, Korean, Japanese, and soon Spanish region.

It’s paying off: 157K+ wallets, 50K DAU, and $370B+ cumulative volume, numbers many post-TGE projects still fail to hit.

edgeX is built on StarkEx ZK-rollup:
• sub-10ms latency
• 1 bps spreads with ultra-deep liquidity
• 100x leverage
• self-custody (no CEX trust trade-offs)

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1991381302109724802

Why the endgame looks uglier than markets are pricing

Over the past few months, my stance has shifted meaningfully:

From “so bearish I’m bullish” (a crowded pessimism that usually sets the stage for a squeeze),

To “so bearish I’m genuinely concerned the system is moving into a more fragile phase.”

This is not about one event but considering the five reinforcing dynamics:

Policy error risk is rising. The Fed is tightening financial conditions into data uncertainty and visible signs of slowdown.

The AI / megacap complex is transitioning from cash-rich to levered growth. That shifts risk from pure equity volatility to a more classic credit cycle problem.

Private credit and loan marks are starting to diverge. Early, but worrying, signs of mark-to-model stress are emerging beneath the surface.

The K-shaped economy is hardening into a political problem. For a rising share of the population, the social contract is no longer credible; that will eventually express itself in policy.

Market concentration is now a systemic and political vulnerability. When ~40% of the index is effectively a handful of tech monopolies with geopolitical and leverage sensitivities, it becomes a national security and policy target, beyond just being a growth story.

Twitter: https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1991188790942265734

FULL article: https://threadingontheedge.substack.com/p/why-the-endgame-looks-uglier-than

miss fjord? they are back

https://x.com/FjordFoundry/status/1991118151954891041

👻 Threading Daily — 19.11.2025 👻

🔖Macro
- Stock market sentiment in ‘Extreme Fear’
- S&P 500 below its 50DMA, stock sell-off deepens
- Odds of Dec rate cut fall to 43%
- Japan GDP contracted 1.8% in Q3
- US to sell F-35s to Saudi Arabia
- Tariff dividends coming by mid 2026: Trump
- Mexico sees widespread protests against President
- Google to invest $40b in Texas data centres
- Google launches Gemini 3
- OpenAI pilots group chats in ChatGPT
- Apple CEO succession plans accelerate
- Cloudflare global network experienced issues

🔖Crypto News
- Crypto continues to puke, sheds $1T+
- BTC 25% slide is short term correction: Bernstein
- BTC whales now collectively buying
- Fidelity SOL ETF to go live tomorrow
- REKT wicks down 40% after Morpho liquidations
- HYPE & ASTER lead bounce as fees soar
- Strategy buys $836m BTC amid downturn
- El Salvador bought $100m BTC over last week
- Korea trying to clarify definition of digital asset
- CBOE to launch perp-style BTC, ETH futures
- Paxos Labs introduces USDG0
- USDai to raise supply caps by $250M
- MegaETH unveils Frontier: mainnet beta
- Vitalik unveils privacy focused ETH framework
- Coinbase updates X bio to say ‘December 17’

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- Stables Are Not Stable — yq_acc
- Tokenized RWAs Surge to $30B, Up Nearly 4x in the Last Two Years — a16z

🔖Raises
- Wizzwoods (Series A) $10M, Pixel farm game < Animoca, IVC
- Obex $37M, Cryptocurrency Incubator < Framework, LayerZero
- Ledn, Crypto lending firm < Tether, Coinbase, White Star, CMT, ParaFi...

🔖Early Projects
- @zashi_app, Bio: Zcash-powered mobile wallet. Built for private payments by the privacy-obsessed @ElectricCoinCo developers of the @Zcash protocol. electriccoin.co/zashi
- @DGramNetwork, Bio: A real-time Hyperfabric DePIN powering the future of connected intelligence.
- @aplus, Bio: aplusprotocol.com
- @Tessera_PE, Bio: A new form of trading tessera.fun
- @sundayrobotics, Bio: Leave it to Sunday sunday.ai

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

👻 Threading Daily — 18.11.2025 👻

🔖Macro
- Stock futures unaffected by crypto weakness
- JPY nears 35 year low, $110b stimulus expected
- Japan 20yr yield hits highest since 1999
- September jobs report to be published on Thursday
- Trump’s $2k stimulus requires new law: Bessent
- Trump tells Congress to release Epstein files
- DoJ investigates Epstein links to Clinton and banks
- US citizens helped N Korea infiltrate US firms
- Alphabet surges overnight on Berkshire stake

🔖Crypto News
- Trump: I only care if we will be #1 in crypto
- Crypto sentiment deep in ‘extreme fear’
- BTC fell to $89k
- BTC correlation to tech stocks nears ATH
- BTC makes death cross, closes below 50w MA
- ASTER leads alts after delaying token unlocks
- Zcash continues to pump
- Punks have fallen 50%+ in past weeks
- Whale loses $6m ADA during swap
- DAT aggregated mNAVs now well below 1
- Aave App 'Save and Earn': available on iOS
- Tether to lead EUR 1b funding for robotics startup
- HK launches tokenized deposit pilot
- Harvard nearly triples its BTC position
- Mt. Gox moves 10,423 $BTC ($936M) to a new wallet
- Strategy is buying BTC, not selling: Saylor
- BUIDL integrated, launched on BNB Chain
- YALA stablecoin depegs, dumps 50% in 24 hours
- Monad token sale's now live on Coinbase
- Sentient airdrop registration now live
- DappRadar shuts down

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- Zcash Foundation’s Q3 2025 Report
- Vitalik Buterin Unveils Kohaku: a Privacy-focused Framework for Ethereum

🔖Raises
- Takadao (Seed) $1.5M, Shariah-compliant insurance alternative < Draper, Istari, Hasan...

🔖Early Projects
- @_inception_ai, Bio: Pioneering a new generation of LLMs. inceptionlabs.ai
- @intodotspace, Bio: The first leveraged prediction market on @solana into.space
- @Alignerz_, Bio: Next-Generation Launchpad powered by @0xPolygon. Smarter incentives with better outcomes.

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

👻 Threading Daily — 17.11.2025 👻

🔖Macro
- Global stock sell-off deepens on tech bubble fears
- Japan 10 year yield hit highest since 2008
- Trump targets tariff cuts in affordability push
- New foreclosures in US housing market jump 20%
- Stimulus fails to halt Chinese home price decline
- Chinese economy stumbles on investment slump
- Xi’s purge of military officers continues
- BBC apologises to Trump for editing speech

🔖Crypto News
- Crypto free fall amid macro sell-off, DAT worries
- BTC below $96k as 24hr liquidations hit $1b
- BTC ETFs get second highest ever daily outflow
- JP Morgan sees BTC support at $94k
- Czech Central Banks buys BTC for ‘test portfolio’
- Canary’s XRP ETF gets $245m inflows day 1
- FDIC considers tokenised deposit insurance
- Bitfarms to wind down BTC mining ops
- Grayscale files for IPO on NYSE
- OKX launches in-wallet DEX trading
- Upexi latest DAT to launch stock buybacks
- Lido proposes enshrined buybacks
- dYdX to use 75% of protocol fees for DYDX buybacks
- Magic Eden announces token buybacks
- Polymarket partners with UFC

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- Hyperliquid HIP-3 Market Overview — eli5
- Why Airdrop Farming Is Ending — The Chopping Block
- Evaluating Airdrop Potential: The “Farm or Pass” Framework — Defi_Warhol

🔖Raises
- N/A

🔖Early Projects
- @oobit, Bio: The #1 app for crypto spenders. Backed by Tether, trusted by millions. oobit.com
- @theworldlabs, Bio: World Labs is a spatial intelligence company, building frontier models that can perceive, generate, and interact with the 3D world.
- @tavus, Bio: The human computing company. tavus.io

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

What I Learned From Ex-Citibank’s RWA Masterclass

While munching on my portuguese egg tarts, I had the privilege to attend the RWA masterclass by @joshuacheong along with 5 other chads in the room @RiddlerDeFi @aki_playaxie @BQYouTube @ashen_one @0xkyle__

(Btw the alpha is at the end of the article for the @CCCCampus kings and queens, $15k and merch for us :)

X: https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1989858068612448450

FULL article: https://threadingontheedge.substack.com/p/what-i-learned-from-ex-citibanks

first it was the @Mantle_Official gaming keyboard

now it’s a trip to Lisbon 🇵🇹

another asmr unboxing video from the corner of my hotel room.

SOUND ON 🔉 to hear how @CCCCampus merch works

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1989648984420556852

$NIL is one of my favorite privacy coins aside from $ZEC $ALEO $RAIL $LOCK

i am bullish for @nillion as it is going to @ethereum and its largest unlock is the self-reinforcing economic flywheel that forms once $NIL becomes an ERC-20 integrated into the largest ecosystem in crypto

i analyzed the flywheel in the simplest, most high-leverage structure:

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1989487826371842242

👻 Threading Daily — 14.11.2025 👻

🔖Macro
- Fed may start buying assets soon: Fed officials
- US car loan delinquencies for sub prime hits ATH
- EU to investigate Google over news outlet rankings
- EU eyes new plan to implement US trade agreement
- IEA sees oil consumption growing to 2050
- Trump mentioned in Epstein emails
- Waymo offers rides on US freeways
- Anthropic plans $50b data centre spend

🔖Crypto News
- BTC performing the worst against stocks since 2022
- Crypto sentiment near early March lows
- ZEC bounces after DAT sees huge volume
- SOL active addresses falls to 12-month low
- Strategy basic mNAV falls below 1x, diluted 1.2x
- Japan exchange looks at ways to curb DATs
- Taiwan studying BTC reserve
- Atkins unveils plan for ‘token taxonomy’
- Visa pilots USDC payouts for creators
- DeFi as a form of savings is finally viable: Vitalik
- Vitalik issues ETH’s ‘Trustless Manifesto’
- SUI unveils its stablecoin USDsui
- CashApp's USDC payments in 2026, powered by Solana
- Aerodrome to merge with Velodrome, expand to ETH
- Circle considers ARC token for native chain
- Sonic unveils fee monetisation system
- dYdX voted to increase buybacks from 25% to 75%
- Hyperliquid loses $5m after POPCAT trading attack
- Aztec token sale is now live

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- The Trustless Manifesto — Vitalik
- Why 9 out of 10 Projects Fail at TGE — AntonioSco_MOV
- BTC and the Nasdaq: the correlation that only hurts — Wintermute

🔖Raises
- LISA $12M, Smart Contract Analyzer < UOB, Signum, NGC, Hash...
- Acurast $11M, Decentralized Serverless Cloud < Gavin, ogle, Michael
- Self Protocol $9M, The Identity Protocol for Real People < Greenfield, Verda, SoftBank...

🔖Early Projects
- @clear_bank, Bio: The bank built for game changers clear.bank
- @darelivex, Bio: Create, Attempt & Trade Dares - Verified On-Chain. dare.live
- @HighwayFi, Bio: Rebalancing power. Redirecting liquidity. We reroute it where it belongs. farcaster.xyz/highwayfi highway.plus

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

we're officially replaying the ico season again

i am bullish on $AZTEC, the first ICO happening on @Uniswap

powered by uniswap’s new continuous clearing auction (co-built with @aztecnetwork), this is the first token sale where:

• 300k+ contributors get day-1 priority
• investors unlocks only in years 2–3, no cliff
• investors can’t stake in year 1 → no reward dumping
• foundation isn’t selling in year 1 at all
• real-time clearing, no sniping, no backroom deals
• zk-passport compliance keeps your data private
• starting price = below what a16z invested in

this is what token launches should look like.

uniswap’s continuous clearing auction (CCA) is the first token sale design that actually fixes the incentives based on this simple core idea: price should form continuously, not at the end, and everyone should clear at the same level without insider edges.

cca clears every block. bids get matched as soon as supply meets them. no sniping, no gas wars, no priority allocations pretending to be “community rounds.”

the part that stands out to me is where cca rewards truth-telling. you put your real bid early because there’s no advantage to waiting. that alone eliminates 90% of the game theory distortions in modern token launches.

its also the most transparent ico model with live supply curve, visible bid book, real-time clearing. you can literally see the market forming a price instead of guessing what insiders paid.

and aztec launching with this makes sense. they’ve always built around first principles: privacy, fairness, and actual onchain mechanics.

cca is the closest thing we’ve had to the ethos of the early ethereum ico, it’s honestly the first token sale design in years that feels like progress.

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1988986134060552690

*GRAYSCALE INVESTMENTS INC . FILES FOR IPO

The Two-Tier K-Shaped Economy

The U.S. economy has split into two layers: financial assets are booming while the the real, productive economy is in a slow-motion recession.

ISM manufacturing has been in contraction for 18+ months, the longest since WWII, yet equity indices keep rising because earnings are concentrated in tech monopolies and financial engineering.

It’s balance-sheet inflation.

Liquidity keeps repricing the same assets higher while wages, credit creation, and small-business activity stagnate.

The result is a K-shaped economy, describing a recovery or cycle where different parts of the economy move in opposite directions:

The upper arm of the K → capital markets, asset owners, tech, and large corporates → rise sharply (profits, stock prices, wealth).

The lower arm → wage earners, small businesses, blue-collar sectors → fall or stagnate.

Twitter: https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1988936582011765181

FULL Article: https://threadingontheedge.substack.com/p/the-two-tier-k-shaped-economy

👻 Threading Daily — 13.11.2025 👻

🔖Macro
- Trump signs bill ending longest gov shutdown
- Futures stable after Dow hits ATH
- S&P 500 earnings grew +18% y/y in Q3
- Asian retail driving US meme stock volume
- Tariffs forcing brands to cut on Black Friday deals
- Trump plans oil drilling off California coast
- UK rejects EU’s $7.8b to join joint defence fund
- Apple hits ATH closing price
- OpenAI Rolls Out GPT-5.1

🔖Crypto News
- Crypto weak but BTC again bounces at 50w MA
- ASTER remains strong, breaks sustained downtrend
- ZEC falls, shielded pool climbs to 23% of supply
- IBIT records ATH single day inflow
- DTCC adds Bitwise ChainLink ETF
- XRP ETF set to launch this week
- Tether plans deeper expansion in gold
- Visa to allow businesses sending stablecoin
- StanChart, DCS partner on stablecoin credit card
- SoFi launches crypto trading
- China accuses US of stealing $13b BTC in hack
- Monad releases market maker details
- Polymarket collabs with PrizePicks
- Polymarket now prediction market partner for Yahoo

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- The State of x402 — Decentralisedco
- A VC Perspective on Airdrop Farming — hosseeb
- Yield Bearing Assets & Stablecoins Report 2025 — RedStone

🔖Raises
- Kyuzo's Friends $11M, Web3 social interactive game < DeAgentAI, Stratified...
- Seismic $10M, The encrypted blockchain < a16z, Polychain, Amber, dao5, LayerZero
- Shodai Network (Seed) $2.5M, Crypto project financing platform < ConsenSys, Joseph Lubin

🔖Early Projects
- @imbue, Bio: Cross-chain loans on credit. Powered by @MegaETH imbue.fi
- @OREStrategy, Bio: Building the @MicroStrategy of $ORE. CA: cJ88EzjfsmvBHBggQJM7YjtYuGCNJgqyspwR47MCLTZ
- @PlanckNetwork, Bio: The world’s first AI Layer 0. Spin up chains, clusters, or custom models on enterprise-grade GPU infra. Backed by the co-founder of USDT and many more.

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

👻 Threading Daily — 12.11.2025 👻

🔖Macro
- Nasdaq sees biggest rally since May
- US government shutdown set to end
- Fed officials appear divided over future cuts
- US nears trade deal with India
- Trump threatens to sue BBC
- Thailand & Cambodia suspend peace deal
- Softbank sells Nvidia stake for $5.8b

🔖Crypto News
- UNI up 20% after it plans fee switch and burn
- ZEC dips below $500, ending recent run
- BMNR buys $389m ETH
- Strategy buys $50m BTC, Strive buys $162m BTC
- Brazil extends financial regulations to crypto
- Argentine judge freezes Libra linked funds
- Coinbase calls off $2B for stablecoin startup BVNK acquisition
- Gemini stock sinks to all time low after results
- Jupiter collabs with Robinhood for SPLs
- Phantom is rolling out 'Phantom Cash' in wallet
- Virtuals launches Lunadotfun
- Early sellers on Coinbase launchpad to be penalised
- Monad public token sale to be at $2.5bn FDV

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- Survival First, Profits Second — tradinghoex
- The Need for Privacy is More Urgent Than Ever — a16z
- The Investable Universe 2.0: Institutional Adoption in Motion — Galaxy

🔖Raises
- Lighter $68M, Perpetual trading protocol < Founders fund, Ribbit, Haun, Robinhood
- Curvance (Strategic) $4M, Decentralized Stablecoin Lending Protocol < F-Prime, Primal, GSR, Flowdesk...
- RenewalBio, Regenerative Medicine Company < YZi Labs

🔖Early Projects
- @Hyperware_ai, Bio: Unlock the internet's missing layer. Supercharge your AI agents and create Dapps at lightspeed. hyperware.ai
- @ampli_inc, Bio: Ampli’s end-to-end solutions enable businesses to deploy institutional-grade infrastructure for autonomous treasury management.
- @Bangers, Bio: Certified Bangers only.
- @offgridcash, Bio: Your Money, Your Rules. offgrid.cash

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo