$PUMP +60% and the bull case is pretty simple.

i’ve been fairly critical of Pump before, especially around unlocks, competition and how robust the volume moat actually is. but none of that really kills the trade.

$PUMP is cheap relative to $HYPE on revenue multiples, the business has real PMF, revenue has been unusually consistent, and current revenue is still growing despite market-share compression.

that last point matters. @Pumpfun’s launchpad share fell hard at one point, but absolute fees still increased because the total launchpad market expanded even faster. losing share in a rapidly growing market is not automatically bearish if the underlying revenue base keeps growing.

then you have the buyback. 50% of revenue continues flowing into $PUMP purchases through April 2027. at current revenue levels, that creates a meaningful daily bid and offsets a large part of the ongoing team and investor unlock pressure.

while i don’t really see $PUMP as a long-term cash-flow hodl, i see it as a leveraged bet on memecoin attention.

more attention → more volume → more Pump revenue → larger buybacks → more token demand.

however, the bear case is still very real: competition is increasing, unlocks continue, Pump is spending aggressively to defend volume, and the buyback commitment has a known expiry date.

but the bull case doesn’t require Pump to dominate forever.

it only requires memecoin activity to stay elevated, Pump to maintain enough market share to keep generating meaningful revenue, and the market to eventually assign a higher multiple to those cash flows.

that’s why i’m cautious on the business, but tactically bullish on the token.

the one metric i’d watch most closely is Pump’s share of total launchpad fees. if that stabilizes while the overall market keeps growing, the bull case gets much stronger.

not advice

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2091004100121133241