been seeing a lot of new prediction market projects launching with strategies that lean heavily on KOL marketing

and the unfortunate truth about this space is that yes, KOLs do move the needle and distribution is downstream of attention, and KOLs are still where attention concentrates

which makes the next observation harder to ignore:

the social layer in prediction markets is wildly underrated and very difficult to build

but here's the supply-side problem that a lof of people flagged: most KOLs aren't good traders and some aren't trading at all

put them through a platform that verifies whether their calls resolve, and a lot of them quietly disappear. their value prop is the appearance of being right, not the receipts.

the real question isn't whether users want verified traders to follow but it's whether the KOLs worth following will opt into transparency that might hurt them

every successful creator-financialization product (friendtech, pumpfun, farcaster) solved this by paying or distributing the creator before grading them

the incentive design on day one is the whole game but worth many many millions

https://x.com/thenarrator/status/2049297750873755946?s=46&t=hr2fbvcHJGpvp_SbDstdzg