I found recent launches to reflect reality disturbingly well

I ran it on a free tool that exposes why 84.7% of 2025 tokens are underwater

I've been saying this forever, beucase teams obsess over tge and ignore post-launch mechanics.

the result is often too much sell pressure that rugs the prices within months

here is the sell pressure simulator built by
@Delphi_Digital
the monte carlo model for token unlock dynamics.

founders, if you are launching a project here is how you can use it:
- input unlock schedule vesting terms
- selling assumptions liquidity conditions
- shows you 25th-75th percentile price paths across thousands of scenarios

the 84.7% stat proves what I already knew:
- tokenomics is broken industry-wide
- teams copy-paste vesting schedules without modeling outcomes
- shocked when holders dump

I'm comparing different allocation strategies side by side. longer vests don't always help if unlock amounts are huge. smaller frequent unlocks sometimes better than large quarterly ones

I'm bookmarking this for every founder who asks me about tokenomics. run your model through this BEFORE finalizing allocations

most won't. they'll launch with beautiful deck and 18-month lockup thinking that's enough.

tool is live

no excuse for bad tokenomics anymore

just wilful ignorance

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2015080627054534830