You can be right and still lose if you’re early

2025 had a very specific kind of psychological violence.

Crypto in 2025 looked less like finance and more like advertising.

Markets (always) moved fast, valuations > fundamentals, and yet the real work, building, surviving vesting cliffs, still moved at human speed.
The defining variable of 2025 was not price. It was time.

Time exposed fragile cap tables, fragile traction, fragile security, and fragile leverage. It punished anything that required just a few more months to become real.

I spent the year living inside that contradiction: switching from a defensive support role into an investing deal + execution role, while watching projects pump and dump around, and trying to stay honest about what everything else say.

This is my post-mortem of 2025 and what I’m carrying into 2026.

(read till the end for that, will drop some of the projects that I will be bullish on in 2026)

Twitter: https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2007074378455134655

FULL article: https://threadingontheedge.substack.com/p/you-can-be-right-and-still-lose-if