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ESA satellite imagery captured over the Red Sea on 2026-09-27 shows Saudi Arabia loading nearly 10 million barrels of crude oil at Yanbu and Al Muajjiz. We also observed refined-product loadings. In total, we visually identified 40 tankers, regardless of their activity or proximity to these terminals.
Nearly six million barrels (valued at nearly $600M) of seized Iranian crude oil are quietly crossing the Atlantic Ocean towards the United States of America.
OK, so this is not how one tracks vessels in the Middle East. Most of the ones moving any cargo of value are keeping their AIS transponders switched off. Our month-on-month sightings show that Saudi Arabia's crude oil loadings along at its east coast are up sevenfold.
EXCLUSIVE: Based on our satellite imagery analysis conducted on 2026-09-14, we can see that the Strait of Hormuz now hosts bi-directional daytime traffic of VLCC supertankers. Furthermore, greater volumes of crude oil, LNG and LPG are being exchanged via STS transfer in the Gulf of Oman.
Crude oil exports out of the US Navy Blockade line (situated at the border of the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea) over the past 60 complete UTC days.
This is crude oil coming out of Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE and Oman.
Not a single barrel of crude oil came out of Iran during that time.
Dark Fleet VLCC supertanker CARINA (IMO 9240512), which has been sanctioned by the US OFAC for transporting at least 22 million barrels of Iranian crude oil in recent years, appears to have been redirected back into the Gulf of Oman after crossing the US Navy blockade line late last night.
Although CARINA is not carrying oil cargo, we can see that the ITU MMSI database has no record of her being flagged as Brazilian. This implies that she is stateless and therefore subject to boarding. Her owners are based in China.
For the first time in two months since the de-facto cessation of the Memorandum of (Mis?)Understanding, the aggregate exports of crude oil out of the US Blockade Line by Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE and Oman have been averaging north of 10 million barrels per day.
Iranian crude oil exports continue to remain at zero.
Gulf of Oman Ship-to-Ship transfers of crude oil are up!
Over the past full 14 days, there were 7.15 million barrels per day being exchanged. These numbers are based on both AIS and satellite imagery of unique sessions.
Fun fact: Now that some Arab nations are using former sanctions-violating tankers to move their oil, they can spoof their positions thanks to the military-grade transponders that still operate onboard them.
It also means that they are pinging on the other side of the planet.
Iran-linked LPG tanker (not yet under US sanctions) seen hauling aft this morning away from the scene of last night's air strikes by US CENTCOM in the Gulf of Oman.
Crude oil exports out of the Middle East during August 2026 were down 39% since the January & February baseline of 18.5 million barrels per day. The lowest point was during May; down 67%.
The current deficit is now only 7.2 Mbpd as opposed to 12.4 Mbpd.
Today’s satellite imagery suggests that the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) VLCC supertanker DOWNY (9218480) was attacked. She is in ballast and carrying no oil cargo. This is the type of vessel US CENTCOM typically targets in retaliation for Iranian attacks on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Satellite imagery shows a flurry of tugboat activity, corroborated by AIS movements that began at approximately 04:45 UTC this morning. The activity is concentrated around the port-quarter; which is the bottom-left corner of the vessel.
This suggests that the engine room was struck, most likely by a US Hellfire missile. There are no signs of fire or smoke on thermal imagery. The vessels do not appear to be conducting firefighting operations at the time of the image, although those efforts may have concluded before 07:21 UTC, when today's imagery was captured.
We also have sources reporting that NITC’s STARK1 (9171450) was struck off the coast of Kooh Mobarak, Iran overnight. She too is empty of cargo. A few days ago, NITC tankers SINOPA (9172038) and HAWK (9362061) were also struck off the port of Jask in the Gulf of Oman, though they appeared to contain some amount of oil cargo; which breaks the usual strike pattern.
We’ve now tagged 17 crude oil and gas (LNG & LPG) ship-to-ship transfers which took place yesterday (2026-09-04) in the Gulf of Oman. At least 24 million barrels were being exchanged.
We also identified many more oil-laden tankers waiting for a dance partner in those waters. It appears that the dance floor itself is the limitation. It's getting quite crowded and port services are kept busy around the clock to ensure smooth and safe transfers.
In addition, we spotted at least 7.25 million barrels, along with two more LNG tankers, assembling to transit the SoH into the GoO under the protection of US CENTCOM.
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