🇺🇸🇨🇳🇹🇼⚡️ — U.S. officials believe a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is increasingly unlikely, citing delays in PLA readiness partly linked to Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign and Beijing’s interest in Taiwan’s 2028 election, Reuters reports.

Some Chinese officials hope the election produces a government more open to closer ties with Beijing, while U.S. officials say China could be more likely to consider force from 2028 onward if the Democratic Progressive Party wins another term, particularly if President Lai Ching-te is reelected.

U.S. officials also believe China has drawn lessons from the wars in Ukraine and Iran, concluding that any attack would need to be rapid and avoid becoming a prolonged conflict.