⏳🇺🇸 Powell's Jackson Hole Speeches Moved BTC 5-15%. Will This Friday Be Different?

Tomorrow's Jackson Hole event is HUGE. With BTC near $113K and rate cut odds high, Fed Chair Powell could define the rest of 2025. Will he ignite the next leg up?

These speeches can be strong crypto catalysts.

🟢 2024: DOVISH PUMP
Powell confirmed rate cuts, sparking a +5.5% BTC rally as liquidity hopes soared.

🟡 2023: NON-EVENT
No major speech. Markets were directionless.

🔴 2022: HAWKISH CRASH
Powell warned of "economic pain." BTC plummeted -15%, deepening the crypto winter.

Let's dive into the 2025 setup 🔎

2025: Will Crypto Rally or Stall?

While CME FedWatch suggests a 73% probability of a September cut, the latest data is mixed.

🔥 Bull Case for Dovishness
➕ Weak July jobs report (-258K in downward revisions for May/June) suggests economic softening.
➕ Some FOMC members argue the tariff impact is a one-time adjustment that the Fed should “look through.”
➕ Political pressure is mounting from the Trump administration to loosen policy.

✋ Bear Case for Hawkishness
➖ Trump’s tariffs ratcheted up inflation expectations; businesses will likely pass higher costs to consumers.
➖ Deportations and immigration cuts tightened the job market, keeping unemployment historically low.
➖ The fed funds rate is near Taylor-rule implied levels, suggesting limited room for cuts.

To better understand what might happen, let's look at what did happen.

✅ 2024: Dovish Pivot

August 23, 2024 — Powell’s speech was a gift. The first explicit commitment to cutting rates since 2020 sparked immediate bullish momentum.

Effects on crypto:
✔️ BTC surged ~5.6% within hours, rocketing from $60,400 to $63,720.
✔️ Multi-day rally helped BTC break key resistance to touch $64,100.
✔️ Alts soared in unison.
✔️ Dovish tone weakened the dollar (DXY hit a 2024 low), making crypto cheaper for foreign investors.
✔️ Comments sparked hopes for future liquidity boosts.

➖ 2023: No Speech

Powell didn’t speak due to a quiet period ahead of the September FOMC meeting.

Effects on crypto:
✔️ Markets became directionless, with BTC trading in a tight range ($25,000-$26,000).
✔️ Crypto reacted to other catalysts, like regulatory developments and institutional adoption trends, instead of the Fed.

⚠️ 2022: Hawkish Shock and “Pain”

August 26, 2022 — Powell caught markets off guard with a stern commitment to fight inflation (9.1% at the time). His now-famous warning that the process would require "some pain" spooked everyone, raising recession fears.

Effects on crypto:
✔️ BTC plummeted ~15% over the following week, from a pre-speech level of ~$21,500.
✔️ Major alts (ETH, ADA, SOL, etc.) sold off sharply in tandem.
✔️ Fed continued its aggressive tightening cycle (11 hikes in total from 0%–0.25% to 5.25%–5.50%), deepening the crypto bear market.

☝️ Wrapping up: Watch the tone, not just the words. The setup is tense.

#research@sumex_official